Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates on lower money market
- Judo Bank Australia Composite PMI increased to 51.8 in February from the previous reading of 49, indicating the first month of expansion in the Australian private sector after a five-month period of contraction.
- Judo Bank Australia Services PMI rose to 52.8 from the previous reading of 49.1. Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 from 50.1 prior due to a significant drop in new orders.
- Economists at TD Securities have adjusted their forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cash rate decisions. While they still anticipate a total of 100 basis points (bps) in rate cuts throughout the easing cycle, they now expect the first 25 bps cut to occur in November, compared to their previous projection of August.
- RBA’s Meeting Minutes revealed that the Board deliberated on the possibility of raising rates by 25 basis points (bps) or keeping rates unchanged. While recent data indicated that inflation would return to target within a reasonable timeframe, it was acknowledged that this process would "take some time." Consequently, the board agreed that it was prudent not to rule out another rate hike.
- Economists at Commerzbank have adjusted their forecast, now expecting the first interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June instead of May. This adjustment is attributed to the reduced likelihood of a recession. Consequently, they anticipate a less aggressive easing of monetary policy compared to their previous projections. Instead of eight rate cuts, they now anticipate five, with three expected in 2024 and two in 2025.
- President of the New York Fed, John C. Williams, discussed his perspective on the Fed's interest rate stance during an interview with Axios. He suggested that rate cuts could be on the horizon later this year, but emphasized that they would only occur if deemed appropriate. Williams noted that his outlook on the economy remains largely unchanged following the release of January's economic data.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller recently suggested that the Federal Reserve should postpone any rate cuts for at least a few more months to assess whether January's high inflation report was an anomaly.
- S&P Global US Services PMI posted the reading of 51.3 in February, against the expected 52.0 and 52.5 prior.
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.5, exceeding the expected 50.5 and 50.7 prior.
- S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 51.4 in February from the previous reading of 52.0.
- US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 201K for the week ending on February 16, against the market expectation of 218K and the previous figure of 213K.
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