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Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD pulls into the middle ahead of Fed Minutes

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  • The Fed’s Minutes from its last meeting will be poured over by investors looking for hints about how close the Fed is to cutting rates.
  • The Fed still sees around three rate cuts this year, while money markets are still hoping for at least five, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
  • Markets are pricing in 70% odds of a first rate trim in June.
  • The EU’s Consumer Confidence in February improved more than expected, printing at -15.5 versus the forecast -15.6, compared to the previous month’s print of -16.1.
  • Thursday’s EU HCOB PMIs are broadly expected to recover, with the pan-euro area Composite PMI for February forecast to improve to 48.5 from 47.9.
  • A below-50.0 print for the Composite component would represent a ninth straight month in contraction territory.
  • Europe’s final Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation on Thursday is expected to confirm the preliminary print of 3.3% YoY.
  • The US is expected to see a slight downtick in its PMI figures, with the Services component forecast to drop to 52.0 from 52.5 and the Manufacturing component expected to drop to 50.5 from 50.7.

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