EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" dynamics of the short-term outlook and testing 1.0830 for a breakout. The position of the American currency remains under pressure amid lower expectations for the imminent launch of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing program. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a decline in borrowing costs in May is estimated at only 35.0%, down from about 60.0% previously. The day before, the minutes of the regulator’s January meeting were published in the United States, which only strengthened doubts that officials would begin to switch to "dovish" rhetoric. Thus, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are currently more concerned about the risks associated with a premature decline in borrowing costs. In addition, many US Federal Reserve officials are unsure about the timing of the return of inflation to the target level of 2.0%, suggesting that this process may be delayed. Meanwhile, the single currency received some support yesterday from data on the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone. In February, the indicator rose from -16.1 points to -15.5 points, which turned out to be slightly better than expectations at the level of -15.6 points. The focus of investors' attention today will be February statistics on business activity from S&P in Europe and the USA. In addition, updated January inflation data will be published in the eurozone during the day: forecasts assume that the Consumer Price Index will remain at 2.8% in annual terms.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, holding near 1.2640. Activity on the market remains subdued, and investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of the February block of business activity statistics in the US and UK. The US PMI from S&P Global is expected to decline in the manufacturing sector from 50.7 points to 50.5 points, and in the services sector from 52.5 points to 52.0 points. Forecasts for the UK are slightly more optimistic: the Manufacturing PMI could rise from 47.0 points to 47.5 points, but the Services PMI is still expected to contract from 54.3 points to 54.1 points. In addition, the Composite PMI from S&P Global/CIPS, according to preliminary estimates, will remain unchanged at 52.9 points. In the United States, data on jobless claims will be presented during the day: analysts expect that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 16 will increase from 212.0 thousand to 218.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended February 9 will decrease from 1.895 million to 1.885 million.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing quite active growth, developing a confident "bullish" short-term trend from February 14. The instrument is testing 0.6200 for a breakout, updating local highs from January 16. The development of upward dynamics is supported by the weakness of the US currency, which is under pressure after the publication of the minutes of the January meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Representatives of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expressed more concern about the remaining risks of a premature decline in borrowing costs than about a prolonged period of "hawkish" monetary policy. Against this background, markets are reconsidering the timing of a possible easing of the regulator's position in May and June: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a May adjustment of 25 basis points is currently estimated at only 35.0%. The development of upward dynamics for the instrument was not prevented by weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand: Export volumes in January decreased from 5.85 billion dollars to 4.93 billion dollars, and Imports from 6.22 billion dollars to 5.91 billion dollars, which led to an increase in the Trade Balance deficit in monthly terms from –368.0 million dollars to –976.0 million dollars. In addition, today at 23:45 (GMT 2) in New Zealand, data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be presented.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is trading in different directions, holding near 150.30. At the same time, the day before the instrument managed to demonstrate restrained growth, despite the publication of minutes from the US Federal Reserve, which only strengthened the market’s confidence that the regulator should not expect a quick reduction in the cost of borrowing. In the minutes of the January meeting, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expressed doubts about the ability to achieve the inflation target of 2.0% in the near future. Partly for this reason, and also because of the risks of a sharp rise in consumer prices when monetary conditions soften, officials are determined to maintain a wait-and-see attitude until the real situation on the market is clarified. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, published the day before, did not provide significant support for the yen. However, Export volumes in January added 11.9%, accelerating from 9.7%, while analysts had expected a slowdown to 9.5%. Today, the Japanese currency is under some pressure from business activity statistics: the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.0 points to 47.2 points in February, contrary to forecasts of 48.2 points.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is rising slightly, testing 2030.00 for a breakout. Quotes have been developing a confident upward trend in the short term since February 14, when they managed to retreat from the local lows of December 13. The instrument is supported by growing doubts that the US Federal Reserve will soon announce a move to easing monetary policy. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a decline in borrowing costs in May was previously estimated at about 60.0%, but now the figure has dropped to 35.0%. The day before, the minutes of the January meeting of the regulator were published in the United States, which only strengthened such expectations. Thus, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expressed concern about the dynamics of reducing inflation to the target 2.0%. Many are confident that forecasts regarding the timing of the easing of price pressure will not come true, so the Fed continues to closely monitor the situation. In addition, officials now see more risk in a premature decline in borrowing costs rather than a longer period of high interest rates. Today, the focus of investors' attention, in addition to data on the dynamics of jobless claims, will be the February statistics on business activity from S&P Global. Forecasts suggest a reduction in the Services PMI from 52.5 points to 52.0 points, and in the Manufacturing PMI from 50.7 points to 50.5 points.