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Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD recovers ahead of Fed minutes, EU PMI activity data

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  • Broad market flows dominate EUR/USD as investors await the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes.
  • Investors continue to hope for faster, sooner rate cuts from the FOMC.
  • According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, money markets are pricing in a first rate cut in June of at least 25 basis points.
  • Markets still see five rate cuts in 2024 compared to the Fed’s own expectations of three.
  • European PMIs on Thursday broadly expected to improve but still remain in contraction territory as the pan-European economy grapples with sluggish growth and a softening landscape.
  • Germany’s HCOB Composite PMI in February expected to recover to 47.5 in February compared to January’s 47.0.
  • The euro area’s broader HCOB Composite PMI is forecast to bounce to 48.5 from 47.9 in February.
  • Europe’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the year ended in January is expected to reiterate the preliminary print of 3.3% YoY.
  • US PMIs will follow on Thursday but are expected to soften with the Services component forecast to decline to 52.0 from 52.5, while the Manufacturing component is expected to tick down to 50.5 from 50.7

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