The United States of America

USD is strengthening against GBP and EUR but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

Investors are awaiting the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting at 21:00 (GMT 2), hoping to see hints of further actions by the regulator and the timing of the transition to the “dovish” rhetoric. Most experts expect that officials will begin adjusting the interest rate in June, and the reduction for the year will be 90 basis points. The Fed representatives are more cautious, predicting 2–3 reductions in borrowing costs per year for a total of 75 basis points. In addition, if the document contains information about the imminent easing of monetary policy, it may not have a significant impact on the market since after the January meeting, new data on inflation were published, which recorded its insufficient reduction.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against USD and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

Today, the German government published a worsened growth forecast for the leading European economy, which put pressure on the region’s currency: according to expert calculations, this year, the gross domestic product (GDP) will increase not by 1.3%, as previously expected but by 0.2% against insufficient external demand for German goods, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistently high inflation. The government believes the consumer price index will be 2.8% this year and will not return to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2.0%. During the day, preliminary February EU consumer confidence index will be published: according to forecasts, the indicator will adjust from –16.1 points to –16.0 points, remaining in the negative zone.

The United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against USD and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

In January, the British treasury received 16.7B pounds, which is double last year, which, according to analysts, will allow Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt to make partial tax cuts to stimulate economic growth and strengthen the pound in the medium term. Also today, a government forecast for the gross domestic product (GDP) was published: this year, it may increase by 0.4%, with inflation averaging 2.2% and unemployment at 4.6%. In 2025, the situation will continue to improve: GDP will adjust by 1.2%, and the consumer price index will be 2.1%, very close to the target level.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against GBP and EUR and has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

Exports rose 11.9%, above the 9.5% forecast but imports fell 9.6% against an expected 8.4% decline, leaving a trade deficit of 1.758T yen. The positive dynamics of exports were due to sales of cars and spare parts in the United States and increased demand for equipment for chip production from the PRC. Experts note that despite the recovery in exports, the manufacturing PMI remains poor, increasing the risks of a further economic downturn.

Australia

AUD has ambiguous dynamics against EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

The Q4 wages increased by 0.9% quarterly, meeting experts’ expectations, and amounted to 4.2%, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of 4.1%. Amid stronger growth than the market expected, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials may keep interest rates high for longer than traders expected but most economists remain confident that the regulator will begin easing monetary policy this autumn.

Oil

The morning decline in oil prices gave way to growth and the return of all lost positions.

The market remains uncertain: prices are being pressured by the anticipation of the publication of US Federal Reserve minutes and the possible postponement of monetary policy adjustments, which will support the American dollar against alternative assets for a long period. On the other hand, a significant weakening of the asset is hampered by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and especially problems with shipping in the Red Sea, where representatives of the Ansar Allah movement continue attacks on commercial ships of Israel, the United States, and The United Kingdom, and where four large ships have been damaged since the beginning of the weekend. This situation causes increased insurance for maritime transport and, as a result, increased costs for oil supplies to the world market. During the day, investors also expect the publication of a weekly report on reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API): earlier, the figure increased by 8.520M barrels, and the continuation of this trend may put additional pressure on oil prices.