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EUR/GBP GAINS SOME GROUND, UPSIDE LIMITED BY DOVISH ECB

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  • The EUR/GBP currently trades at 0.8540, recording a 0.10% on Thursday.
  • Monetary policy divergences between the BoE and ECB will eventually benefit the GBP.
  • Markets are leaning toward a rate cut by the ECB in April while the BoE is seen starting in June.

In Thursday's session, the EUR/GBP pair is seen at 0.8540, posting modest gains. The pair is receiving pressure from a dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB), tipping rate cut odds for April. Meanwhile, GBP maintains its undercurrent due to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy which seems to be pushing the easing cycle to June.

Adding to that, markets currently price in about 65% odds for rate cuts to commence in April, predicting 125 bp worth of easing this year, despite ongoing resistance from ECB officials. On the other hand, for the BoE, investors anticipate about 100 bp of rate cuts in the next 12 months, beginning in June due to the recent economic figures which suggest that the British economy remains resilient. Moreover, as long as the UK's economy continues to show strength and markets delay the BoE's interest rate cuts, the cross may see further downside


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