BOE PREVIEW: ANY HINT SUGGESTING AN EARLIER CUT/DOVISH TILT COULD SEND GBP BULLS INTO HIBERNATION – OCBC
GBP/USD trades around 1.2675 levels. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze Cable’s outlook ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday.
UK’s resilient economic data should continue to support GBP
Markets are now pricing 56% probability of 25 bps cut at May MPC (vs. <50% probability a week ago). Any hint from BoE MPC that suggests an earlier cut/dovish tilt could send GBP bulls into hibernation. That said, so long the remarks from BoE officials do not sound overly dovish, we reckon the pullback may provide an attractive point for GBP bulls to re-enter.
On the data front, the UK economy has been fairly resilient. Services PMI is still in expansionary territory. Business optimism and consumer confidence were also improving while public sector net borrowing (ex-banking groups) came in much lower than expected. Overall, these positives should continue to support GBP.
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