EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is holding near 1.0850: market activity at the start of the week is likely to remain subdued due to the lack of key macroeconomic releases, while investors will continue to analyze last week's data. At the same time, on Wednesday, January 31, they will monitor the results of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is currently not expected to change the interest rate, which is at 5.50%, but updated forecasts and comments from regulator officials will be important, given that analysts still expect a fairly high probability of an adjustment in borrowing costs in March. At the end of the week, a report on the labor market will be published in the US, which may affect trading early next week. Forecasts suggest an increase in the number of Non-Farm Payrolls in January by 173.0 thousand after an increase of 216.0 thousand in the previous month, the Unemployment Rate could adjust from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the Average Hourly Earnings - from 0.4% to 0.3%. The eurozone will report January consumer inflation data on Thursday, with the annualized CPI expected to slow down from 2.9% to 2.8% and the Core CPI going down from 3.4% to 3.2%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with slight upward dynamics, testing the level of 1.2700 for a breakout. "Bullish" activity on the instrument remains subdued, as trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England scheduled for this week. The results of the meeting of officials of the American regulator will be known on Wednesday, January 31, and of the British one on Thursday, February 1. Neither of the banks is expected to change the vector of monetary policy, while comments from officials, as well as updated forecasts, may significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. As before, investors are factoring into current quotes the likelihood that the Bank of England will launch an interest rate reduction program significantly later than the US Federal Reserve, whose representatives also state that it is somewhat premature to move on to easing monetary conditions. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, released Friday, gained 0.2% in December after -0.1% a month earlier, while the Core CPI rose 0.2% from the 0.1% reported in the previous month. In annual terms, the index slowed down from 3.2% to 2.9%, with a forecast of 3.0%. Note that this indicator is actively used by the US Federal Reserve when calculating average inflation and can significantly affect the results of the upcoming meeting of the regulator. The pound, in turn, received minor support from statistics on the Consumer Confidence Index from the analytical portal Gfk Group: the indicator rose from -22.0 points to -19.0 points, with expectations at -21.0 points.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, testing 0.6590 for a breakout. The growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week is facilitated by technical factors, while the fundamental picture on the market remains virtually unchanged. On Wednesday, trading participants are awaiting the results of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy: no changes in the interest rate are predicted, but comments from officials may indicate the regulator's future course. In addition, at the end of the week the January report on the American labor market will be published, which may affect the authorities’ plans regarding the expected transition to "dovish" rhetoric in the first half of the year: according to preliminary estimates, the Non-Farm Payrolls in January will decrease 216.0 thousand to 173.0 thousand, the Unemployment Rate will be adjusted from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the Average Hourly Earnings will be adjusted from 0.4% to 0.3%. In addition, Australia will present inflation data on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to slow from 5.4% to 4.3% in annual terms and from 1.2% to 0.8% in quarterly terms, and the Core CPI may decline from 5.2% to 4.4%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows ambiguous dynamics, consolidating near 148.00. The American currency ended last week's trading with a slight decline, while the instrument managed to update the local lows of January 16. Investors will focus on the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place on January 31. At the moment, the American regulator is not expected to change the parameters of monetary policy; however, officials may signal in favor of an early easing of monetary conditions if downward trends in the dynamics of consumer inflation continue, and judging by data published on Friday, January 26, the price pressure continues to decline. The Core Price Index of Personal Consumption Expenditures in annual terms in December slowed down from 3.2% to 2.9% against expectations of 3.0%, and in monthly terms the indicator adjusted from 0.1% to 0.2%. In turn, the yen came under pressure from statistics from Japan, where the Consumer Price Index in the Tokyo region fell sharply in January from 2.4% to 1.6%, and the CPI excluding Food and Energy fell from 3.5% to 3.1%. Low inflation rates in the country are putting significant pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to end its negative interest rate policy this year.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2025.00, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. This week there will be meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which can significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. At the same time, steps towards changing the parameters of monetary policy are not expected from either of the regulators yet. Borrowing costs are likely to remain unchanged, but updated forecasts and comments from officials will allow the market to adjust its expectations for the near term. However, it is assumed that the US Federal Reserve will move on to easing monetary parameters in March or May. The Bank of England is likely to start cutting interest rates as late as possible, given the high level of uncertainty about consumer inflation in the UK. At the end of the week, the January labor market report will be published in the United States: according to forecasts, the Non-Farm Payrolls will amount to 173.0 thousand in January after 216.0 thousand in the previous month, the Unemployment Rate may rise from 3.7% to 3.8 %, and the growth rate of Average Hourly Earnings will slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%.