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GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE INFLUENCED BY US STRENGTH AND HIGH US YIELDS

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  • The XAU/USD exhibits a strong downward trend, moving near the $2,025 level.
  • The US Dollar measured by the DXY Index rose to its highest since mid-December.
  • Higher US yields are also driving demand away from the US Dollar.

In Tuesday's trading session, the XAU/USD showcased a significant downward trajectory, trading near the $2,025 mark. This downward movement is predominantly attributed to the strengthening US Dollar and higher US yields. With the US economy showing resilience, precious metals such as gold XAU are witnessing downward pressure but as long as dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain high, the downside is limited.

The Federal Reserve closely observes Core inflation, which unexpectedly picked up in December. In addition, they also monitor the labor market, which showed strong figures in the last month of 2023, with job creation and earnings accelerating and Unemployment declining. While the Fed officials keep a cautious tone as an overheated economy may threaten their fight against inflation, the markets are confident that the easing cycle will begin in March, and those dovish bets may limit the downside for the metal. As for now, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests that the probabilities of cuts in March and May are high, above 50%.

Presently, US Treasury yields are up. The 2-year rate is 4.20%, the 5-year rate is 3.90%, and the 10-year yield is recorded at 4%. Higher yields drove attention to the US dollar as it tends to attract foreign investors

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