Current trend

During the Asian session, USD/CAD shows ambiguous dynamics, holding around the highs of December 15, near 1.3380, renewed yesterday.

American macroeconomic statistics supported the asset: the business optimism index from NFIB in December increased from 90.6 points to 91.9 points, while analysts expected growth only to 90.7 points, and the economic optimism indicator from IBD/TIPP in January – from 40.0 points to 44.7 points, better than forecasts of 42.0 points. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of key macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the dynamics of consumer inflation for December on Thursday. According to preliminary estimates, the consumer price index will adjust from 0.1% to 0.2% MoM and from 3.1% to 3.2% YoY, and the core rate from 4.0% to 3.8%.

Some pressure on the position of the Canadian currency was exerted by export data, which decreased in October from 66.17B Canadian dollars to 65.74B Canadian dollars, while imports increased from 62.97B Canadian dollars to 64.17B Canadian dollars, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 3.2B Canadian dollars to 1.57B Canadian dollars.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands smoothly reverse horizontally: the price range expands from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, having from its high values and reversed into a downward plane, reflecting a full-fledged corrective decline development in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.

Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after 1.3350 is broken with the target at 1.3250. Stop loss – 1.3400. Implementation time: 2–3 days.

Long positions may be opened after 1.3400 is broken upward with the target at 1.3500. Stop loss – 1.3350.