Focus on USDX today – 12th January 2024

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDX for 12th January 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• U.S. inflation data: The U.S. non-seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in December was 3.9%, exceeding expectations of 3.8%, a new low since May 2021; the monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations. It doesn’t actually indicate a rapid decline in inflation, which for the Fed doesn’t really support a rate cut in March. Therefore, short bets on dollar index may take a breathe for a while. 
• Speech by FOMC members: All members expressed their views on the interest rate cut in March in public. Among them, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that it is too early to cut interest rates in March . Richmond Fed President Barkin reiterated that he will not prejudge that the Fed will cut interest rates in March and said that it will keep an eye on PCE inflation data. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has not entered the overbought area, and at the same time issued a short signal, implying that the current bulls have insufficient strength to continue their upward momentum, and the market price may fall at any time. 
• Convergence range: The U.S. dollar index continues to fluctuate below the black 33-day moving average, and has never been able to break through the resistance of the 33-day moving average. It gradually formed a convergence triangle range. If the price falls below the range, the U.S. dollar index may continue its short trend. 

1-hour Chart Analysis 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal after touching the overbought area. Currently, short-term shorts have the upper hand. It is worth switching to a smaller period, such as the 15-minute chart, to observe whether there is a signal to enter the market for short. 
• Flag-shaped interval: The U.S. dollar index continues to hover and adjust above the green 240-period moving average, forming a rising flag-shaped interval. The U.S. Dollar Index may confirm the bearish trend after breaking below the flag range. 

Pivot Indicator 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 102.58, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 102.58, first target 102.76, second target 102.90; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 102.58, first target 102.16, second target 101.91. 

Conclusion 

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