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CANADIAN DOLLAR BACKSLIDES, DRAGGED DOWN BY TUMBLE IN CRUDE OIL

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  • Canadian Dollar broadly turns lower amidst Crude Oil rout.
  • Canada economic data docket is thin this week.
  • Crude Oil tumbles once again in choppy trading as downside pressure mounts.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) sees downside pressures across the major currencies board on Monday, getting pushed down the charts by a backsliding Crude Oil market to kick off the second week of 2024.

Canadian International Merchandise Trade Balance and Building Permits, both slated for release on Tuesday, represent the only data showings for the Canadian Dollar on this week’s economic calendar. Markets are still adjusting after last Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print saw heavy revisions to previous periods.

Weakening economic figures are the name of the game for data points from Canada, with Tuesday’s Canadian International Merchandise Trade Balance forecast to decline from 2.97 billion to 1.8 billion for November. Meanwhile, Canadian November Building Permits are likewise expected to slip from 2.3% to 2.0%.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar softens on despondent Crude Oil demand outlook

  • Another slump in Crude Oil is dragging down the Canadian Dollar on waffling Middle East barrel prices.
  • Saudi Arabia slashed the prices they charge to trading partners in Asia for Saudi crude as production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continue to get foiled by slumping barrel demand from key oil market drivers such as China.
  • US Crude Oil production continues to pump at or near record levels near 13 million barrels per day.
  • The legs continue to get kicked out from underneath broad market expectations of global undersupply that has yet to materialize despite months of production cuts.
  • Last Friday’s US NFP goosed market expectations of Fed rate cuts after printing well above expectations, despite a steep downside revision to previous periods’ prints. A firm employment outlook in the US makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will get pushed into a rate cut cycle as soon as investors were initially hoping for.
  • Key US data for this week lands on Thursday with another round of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print.
  • Headline annualized US CPI inflation is expected to tick up slightly from 3.1% to 3.2% for December

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