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美联储大转向

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国际市场快讯 :

 
美联储大转向

 
美联储大转向

美联储开始转向12月14日讯,中金评12月FOMC利率决议,相比已经成为既定事实的加息结束,市场更关心的是何时降息,毕竟市场已经开始提前交易明年3月开始总计降息5次了。 在这一点上,此次美联储姿态比我们预想的更「鸽」,不仅点阵图暗示可能2024年有三次降息,而且相比两周前鲍威尔认为讨论降息依然不成熟(premature),此次表示降息讨论“逐步进入视野”(begins to come into view)也有明显变化。 市场一度担心此前抢跑过多,会被美联储敲打,但结果反而是美联储向市场“靠拢”。 


市场定价美联储明年将降息6次

市场对美联储的降息押注继续增加,与美联储议息日期挂钩的利率期货显示,市场定价美联储到明年底将降息6次,即150个基点。

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