Economists at HSBC still expect a slightly weaker AUD against the USD in the months ahead.
Three factor medium-term bearish view for the AUD
We still maintain our three factor medium-term bearish view for the AUD.
First, slowing US growth would hardly be good news for the AUD, as it would likely combine with weakness in growth elsewhere to heighten global growth concerns and weigh on risk sentiment.
Second, AUD/USD has not benefited much from favourable moves in relative rates recently, but has suffered from unfavourable moves. This asymmetry should last, if markets focus on more dominant negative themes.
Third, our base case remains that China's growth outlook will not be a supportive factor for the currency anytime soon.
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