EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0685. On Friday, the single currency fell moderately, updating local lows from November 3 against the backdrop of statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve regarding the prospects for monetary policy. Officials supported the idea of a possible tightening of monetary conditions if the rate of decline in inflation lags behind expectations. At the same time, the Fed is aware of the additional risks that a further increase in borrowing costs brings with it, but considers the American economy to be quite stable. In addition, on Friday, investors were disappointed by data on the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan: in November, the indicator fell sharply from 63.8 points to 60.4 points, while the forecast was 63.7 points. Last Friday's European statistics also failed to significantly support buying sentiment in the market. Industrial Production in Italy showed zero dynamics in September after growing by 0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.2%, and in annual terms the figure rose from -4.2% to -2.0%. Investors' focus today will be on Economic Growth Forecasts from the European Commission, while in the US the October Budget Statement is expected to be published: forecasts suggest a significant reduction in its deficit from -171.0 billion dollars to -30.0 billion dollars.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trying to recover from a noticeable decline last week, when local lows from November 3 were updated. The most active downward dynamics were demonstrated last Thursday, when markets analyzed the results of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a meeting organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Representatives of the American regulator doubt that borrowing costs have reached their peak. The Chair of the US Federal Reserve noted that he admits one or more interest rate increases if the current economic situation requires it. In turn, data published last week reflected an increase in UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in September by 0.2% compared to 0.1% a month earlier, while analysts expected -0.1%. The indicator showed zero dynamics in the third quarter and added 0.6% in annual terms, which also turned out to be better than forecasts of -0.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Industrial Production in September amounted to 0.0% after -0.5% in the previous month, while markets expected 0.1%, and in annual terms the figure was fixed at 1.5%, which was noticeably higher than expected level of 1.1%. Manufacturing Production increased by 0.1% after -0.7% a month earlier, with a forecast of 0.3%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing weak gains, recovering from a noticeable decline last week. The instrument showed a sharp change in the direction of trading in the short term and over the week retreated from local highs on October 12 to local lows on November 2. Quotes were put under pressure by comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve, who spoke in favor of a possible continuation of the monetary policy tightening program. At the same time, the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, emphasized that a further increase in borrowing costs should be due to a noticeable increase in inflationary pressure, which is not happening yet. In addition, on Friday the US published data on the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan: in November the indicator dropped sharply from 63.8 points to 60.4 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than the forecast of 63.7 points. In turn, the Manufacturing PMI of New Zealand in October fell from 45.3 points to 42.5 points, and the Services PMI from Business NZ increased from 50.7 points to 58.9 points.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to rise moderately, developing the "bullish" dynamics formed last week. The instrument is testing 151.70 for a breakout, updating record highs from October 21, 2022. The possibility of new currency interventions by the Bank of Japan only increases with the further weakening of the yen. In turn, the American currency received support from statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, who noted that the peak of borrowing costs may not be passed yet. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics prevented a more confident growth of the US dollar at the end of last week. Thus, the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan in November showed a sharp decline from 63.8 points to 60.4 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecasts of 63.7 points. Pressure on the yen is exerted by data from Japan: thus, the Producer Price Index in October amounted to -0.4% after -0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected zero dynamics, and the domestic price index for corporate goods slowed down from 2.0% to 0.8%, which also turned out to be lower than the forecast of 0.9%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows multidirectional trading dynamics, holding near 1935.00. At the opening of the new week, the instrument managed to update the local lows of October 17, but the quotes had already managed to recover most of the losses. Pressure on gold intensified with the advent of "hawkish" comments from US Federal Reserve officials, including the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who reflected the officials’ readiness to maintain tight monetary policy, allowing for further increases in borrowing costs. At the same time, demand for the precious metal is gradually recovering against the backdrop of the fact that the most negative scenarios regarding the situation in the Middle East have not yet come true: other countries have taken a wait-and-see approach, preferring not to enter into the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for now, which increases the overall demand for risky assets. The focus of investors today will be the US Federal Reserve's October report on the state of the country's budget: forecasts suggest a significant reduction in its deficit from -171.0 billion dollars to -30.0 billion dollars. In addition, inflation statistics for October will be published during the week: analysts expect a slowdown in the monthly growth rate of Consumer Price Index from 0.4% to 0.1%.