Current trend

During the Asian session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are correcting around 76.62 after active growth at the end of last week.

Pressure on the price continues as the conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of expanding as new countries such as Iran and Syria take a wait-and-see approach. In addition, Chinese refineries have reduced their request for December supplies of raw materials from Saudi Arabia, and now investors expect that on November 26, when the next OPEC meeting will take place, representatives of leading exporters will develop uniform measures in response to the current situation in the global economy. Note that the cartel’s Monitoring Committee, whose meetings were held in August and October in an online format, did not recommend making changes to the current policy of the alliance.

In addition, the negative dynamics are developing against ambiguous forecasts for global energy demand. Thus, Chinese macroeconomic statistics disappoint traders who were counting on a significant increase in fuel consumption in the country: the consumer price index fell to –0.1% MoM and –0.2% YoY, which casts doubt on the recovery of the second world economy soon. Traders focus on Iraq’s export growth, although its representatives say the country does not intend to violate its obligations under the OPEC production reduction agreement. A slight increase in oil production is also observed in Venezuela against easing sanctions.

The market is focused on the US budget report for October, with analysts forecasting a reduction in the deficit from –171.0B dollars to –30.0B dollars. On Tuesday, American statistics on consumer inflation will be published: according to preliminary estimates, the figure will be adjusted from 0.4% to 0.1%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining: the price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator is trying to reverse upwards and form a new buy signal (the histogram tends to be located above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, retreating from the lows that signaled the development of corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 77.00, 78.00, 79.14, 80.00.

Support levels: 76.00, 75.00, 74.00, 73.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after 76.00 is broken with the target at 74.00. Stop loss – 77.00. Implementation time: 1–2 days.

Long positions may be opened after a rebound from 76.00 and a breakdown of 77.00 upwards with the target at 79.14. Stop loss – 76.00.