AUD/USD MAY RETURN TO THE FAMILIAR CONSOLIDATION RANGE OF 0.63-0.65 – TDS
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the Cash Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting. AUD had a knee-jerk reaction lower. Economists at TD Securities analyze Aussie’s outlook.
RBA capitulates on its earlier hawkish stance
The RBA delivered as expected, lifting the Cash Rate 25 bps to 4.35%. However, the surprise for the market was the dovish tweak to the forward guidance in the last paragraph of the Statement. Coupled with the lift in its inflation forecasts, the Bank is arguably setting a higher hurdle for hikes.
While we forecast no further RBA hikes in this cycle, we view either Feb or May'24 as the next possible meetings to potentially draw the Bank back to the hiking table.
Near term, we see AUD/USD returning to the 0.63-0.65 range. However, taking a longer-term view, we remain bullish on Aussie given our view that the USD correction has begun while the Chinese stimulus should begin to bear fruit.
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