• Natural Gas prices steady near $3.54. 
• The US Dollar undergoes profit-taking in this year’s long-USD trade.
• Natural Gas prices could easily still jump once additional countries are getting involved in the conflict. 

Natural Gas is still trading near last week’s high, with $3.64 as the level to keep an eye on. The biggest and foremost element that is underpinning Natural Gas prices at the moment is the lingering risk of a proxy war on the horizon. With Israeli troops having surrounded Gaza city, pressure remains elevated with potential of a full blown war in the Middle East still a possible outcome which would see Gas prices soar to $4.00.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is losing traction as more and more unwinds and profit-taking are occurring in this year’s long-US Dollar trade. Recent numbers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reveal that the long position in USD futures is starting to contract and is off its high for this year. The recent disappointing US Jobs report reveals that the American engine is starting to stutter and might force the hand of the US Federal Reserve to start cutting sooner than later. 

Natural Gas is trading at $3.53 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  

Natural Gas news and market movers

• Foreign Evacuations stall as Gaza city is being surrounded by Israeli forces. Meanwhile Iran is keeping pressure on the situation by saying it will retaliate if Israel continues its ground offensive.
• Ample storage capacity meanwhile limits further upside moves in Natural Gas futures in Europe. Benchmark futures dropped by 5.7% as European gas storages are still up 99.6% while temperatures have dipped substantially, showing resilience in the European gas supply. 
• Weather forecasts for the whole of Europe reveal rather tepid temperatures, above normal for the time of year, while more demand for gas could come from Scandinavian countries where a cold front is pushing temperatures below normal average expectations. 

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Risk spills over

Natural Gas price is facing a firm technical cap on the topside of charts. That cap comes with European gas storages being full, suggesting demand is non-existent. With European gas storages still overflowing at 99.6%, even with lower temperatures, it does not look like Europe will need to scramble for gas this winter. 

Only one big catalyst could break the price ceiling near $3.64, and that is a proxy war in the Middle East. Once the likes of Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region start mobilising forces, a chunky risk premium needs to be priced in. Expect to see a quick sprint to $4.33, the high of 2023. 

On the downside, the upper boundary of the old trend channel which persisted from April to October will probably act as support again, near $3.42. If that gives way, Natural Gas prices could fall to $3.28 to find support and bounce off the green ascending trend line. Should that give way, look for the 55-day Simple Moving Average to do its work near $3.13