Current trend

The driver of the upward movement in the NZD/USD pair remains the decision of the US Federal Reserve to keep the interest rate at 5.50% to analyze the effectiveness of measures already taken on the national economy. Currently, the instrument quotes are testing 0.5995.

After the “dovish” speech of the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, futures markets estimate the likelihood of 85.0% that the regulator has finished increasing the rate, and 80.0% that the reduction in borrowing costs will begin in June. Swaps markets, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, are confident of maintaining 90.0% in December and 83.0% in January 2024.

Against this background, the trading instrument has broken through the resistance area of 0.5882–0.5905 and now seeks to test the area of 0.6010–0.6045, if it holds, the long-term downward trend will continue with the target at the October low of 0.5790. If market participants consolidate the price above 0.6045, the long-term trend will change to an upward one, and long positions with the target at 0.6245 are relevant.

The medium-term trend changed to an upward one, and the quotes broke the key trend resistance of 0.5943–0.5928. Now the target for purchases is zone 2 (0.6098–0.6083), and the trend border moves to the area of 0.5861–0.5847, after reaching which you can open long positions with the first target at the current week’s high around 0.6000.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6010, 0.6045, 0.6245.

Support levels: 0.5865, 0.5790, 0.5750.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 0.6045 with the target at 0.5910 and stop loss around 0.6095. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 0.6095 with the target at 0.6045 and stop loss around 0.6038.