Current trend

Despite the weakening of the NZD/USD pair last week, quotes failed to consolidate below the support area of 0.5890-0.5870, which is likely to lead to a new attempt at growth amid the emergence of interest in risk assets after Israel postponed its ground operation in the Gaza Strip for a few days.

Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand also contribute to the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar: Visitor Arrivals in August in annual terms increased by 59.4% against the forecast of 38.0%. In turn, the Food Price Index in September added 8.0% in annual terms, which also turned out to be higher than the expected 7.5%.

The long-term trend in NZD/USD is downward. A strong support area is the range of 0.5890–0.5870: if the price breaks through it and consolidates below, the next downward target will be the level of 0.5750.

If the support area of 0.5890–0.5870 is held by buyers, another upward correction will begin, the target of which will be last week’s high at 0.6045, a breakout of which may lead to a price correction to the level of 0.6245.

The mid-term trend is downward. Last week, as part of the correction, the key trend resistance in the area of 0.6030–0.6014 was once again tested. The zone was held, as a result of which the price dropped to 0.5882. Now the quotes are correcting, after which one can expect a continuation of the downward dynamics with the target at breaking through the target zone 3 (0.5871–0.5853).

If target zone 3 is broken down, the next target along the trend will be target zone 4 (0.5691–0.5673), and if the key resistance of the trend 0.6030–0.6014 is broken out, the priority for trading will change to upward and the target will be at target zone 2 (0.6185–0.6169).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6010, 0.6045, 0.6245.

Support levels: 0.5890, 0.5870, 0.5750.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.6075 with target at 0.6245 and stop-loss at 0.6010. Implementation time: 9-12 days.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.5870 with target at 0.5750 and stop loss at 0.5920.