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DJIA: BONDS LOSE GROUND AMID FALLING INFLATION

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DJIA: BONDS LOSE GROUND AMID FALLING INFLATION
Scenario
TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point33900.5
Take Profit34600.0
Stop Loss33600.0
Key Levels32800.0, 33350.0, 33900.0, 34600.0
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point33349.5
Take Profit32800.0
Stop Loss33600.0
Key Levels32800.0, 33350.0, 33900.0, 34600.0

Current trend

The Dow Jones index is correcting within the local trend and is trading at around 33644.0.

After the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 5.25%–5.50% and commented that they could be raised in the future, investors cautiously expected the first inflation data in September, but the report turned out to be positive: the consumer price index remained at 3.7%, core inflation dropped to 4.1% from 4.3% a month earlier. Against this background, the probability of keeping the current key rate at the next meeting of the American regulator from the CME FedWatch Tool service has significantly increased and now stands at 90.3%.

The likely preservation of interest rates may lead to the fact that US bonds will become less attractive: today 10-year TIPS are down by 1.06%, 20-year bonds are down by 0.75%, and global 30-year bonds have lost 0.81% since the beginning of the day.

Among the companies showing growth are: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. ( 7.04%), Nike Inc. ( 0.61%), Amgen Inc. ( 0.51%).

Among the companies showing an active decline are: Boeing Co. (2.44%), McDonald's Corporation (1.89%), Honeywell International Inc. (1.85%).

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, the quotes continue their corrective dynamics and are trading below the resistance line of the local descending channel with the borders of 32800.0–34000.0.

Technical indicators hold the sell signal, but do not exclude growth: the range of fluctuations of the EMAs of the Alligator indicator continues to actively narrow, and the AO histogram forms new ascending bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 33350.0, 32800.0.

Resistance levels: 33900.0, 34600.0.

DJIA: BONDS LOSE GROUND AMID FALLING INFLATION

Trading tips

If the local growth of the asset continues, one may open long positions after overcoming the resistance level, at around 33900.0, with the at 34600.0 and stop loss at 33600.0. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

In the event of a reversal and continued decline of the asset, as well as price consolidation below the local support level, at 33350.0, one can open short positions with the target at 32800.0 and stop loss at 33600.0.

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