AUD/USD: US INFLATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE
Scenario | |
---|---|
Timeframe | Weekly |
Recommendation | SELL STOP |
Entry Point | 0.6275 |
Take Profit | 0.6160 |
Stop Loss | 0.6340 |
Key Levels | 0.6160, 0.6280, 0.6370, 0.6490 |
Alternative scenario | |
---|---|
Recommendation | BUY STOP |
Entry Point | 0.6375 |
Take Profit | 0.6490 |
Stop Loss | 0.6300 |
Key Levels | 0.6160, 0.6280, 0.6370, 0.6490 |
Current trend
The AUD/USD pair is correcting at around 0.6317 amid the stabilization of the US dollar rate.
The instrument receives support from macroeconomic data. According to a report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), growth in business turnover in August was recorded in eight of thirteen sectors of the national economy. Manufacturing led the way with 6.4%, followed by arts and recreation, which gained 6.0% after declining 7.4% the previous month. Retail trade also showed positive dynamics at 3.6%. In turn, the largest decrease was recorded in the services (-2.6%) and media (-1.6%) sectors.
US dollar quotes managed to stabilize around 106.000 in the USD Index and, most likely, will end the week slightly above this level. Investors' attention yesterday was focused on data from the US, according to which the Consumer Price Index remained at 3.7% in September, and Core CPI dropped from 4.3% to 4.1%, which turned out to be a positive result, given the preservation of the Fed's borrowing costs unchanged. In addition, it can be noted that the number of Initial Jobless Claims remained at the level of 209.0 thousand, which indicates the stability of the labor market.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price is trading within a local downward corridor with dynamic boundaries of 0.6430–0.6230, continuing to hold near the support line.
Technical indicators are still holding a sell signal, which is strengthening from time to time: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept at a sufficient distance from the signal line, and the AO histogram, being in the sell zone, forms new corrective bars.
Support levels: 0.6280, 0.6160.
Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6490.
Trading tips
If the asset continues global declining and the price consolidates below the support level of 0.6280, short positions can be formed with the target at 0.6160. Stop-loss — 0.6340. Implementation time: 7 days and more.
If the asset reverses and continues corrective growth, and the price consolidates above the resistance level at 0.6370, long positions will be relevant with target at 0.6490. Stop-loss — 0.6300.
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