EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is developing upward dynamics, updating local highs from September 25. The instrument is testing the level of 1.0630, while investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of minutes of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and September statistics on consumer inflation. Markets expect additional signals from the European regulator in favor of a possible tightening of monetary policy before the end of this year, especially if price pressure resumes moderate growth. Data on consumer inflation from Germany published yesterday showed the indicator remaining unchanged at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 4.5% on an annual basis, which coincided with analysts’ forecasts. Meanwhile, the September US Producer Price Index accelerated from 2.0% to 2.2% against forecasts of a decline to 1.6%, while the indicator slowed down from 0.7% to 0.5% in monthly terms, and the market expected it to reach 0.4%. Core CPIs over the same period increased from 0.2% to 0.3% and from 2.5% to 2.7%, respectively, but have not yet been able to support the US dollar. Investors prefer to wait for the publication of statistics on consumer inflation; in addition, the rhetoric of representatives of the US Federal Reserve has a more significant impact on the national currency: yesterday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari and the President of the Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic noted that at the moment there is no need for further increase in interest rates.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair shows mixed trading dynamics, remaining close to 1.2120 and local highs from September 21. The instrument is consolidating after a strong six-day rally driven by widespread weakness in the US dollar. The position of the American currency came under pressure amid the decreasing likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. This was indirectly evidenced both by the regulator’s September minutes, published the day before, and by comments from the Fed's representatives at the beginning of the week. At the same time, markets expect that the current level of interest rates will remain for a long time, and officials will not rush to start lowering the value. Today in the US, September statistics on consumer inflation will be presented, which may slightly adjust expectations regarding an increase in the cost of borrowing if the real dynamics turn out to be worse than forecasts, suggesting a slowdown from 3.7% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms. Meanwhile, traders are weighing in on today's data from the UK, where Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed modest growth by 0.2% in August after contracting 0.6% in the previous month. In turn, Industrial Production volumes in monthly terms decreased by 0.7% after -1.1%, while analysts expected -0.2%, and in annual terms they accelerated from 1.0% to 1.3% with the forecast at 1.7%.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing quite active growth, recovering after the decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate at new local highs of September 29. The instrument is again testing 0.6420 for a breakout; however, investors prefer to wait for the publication of September statistics in the United States. Analysts predict a further decline in the Consumer Price Index from 3.7% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms; however, given the data on producer inflation, it is likely that the real dynamics will be worse than forecasts. The September Producer Price Index presented the day before accelerated from 2.0% to 2.2% in annual terms, while analysts expected 1.6%, and in monthly terms, producer inflation slowed down from 0.7% to 0.5%. Meanwhile, the instrument is somewhat supported by consumer inflation expectations from the University of Melbourne: in October, the figure was revised from 4.6% to 4.8%, which increases the risks of a possible resumption of monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair remains virtually unchanged, remaining close to the psychological resistance level of 149.00. The instrument is developing mixed trading in the short term, while analysts expect new drivers to emerge. In particular, today the market will focus on September statistics on consumer inflation in the United States. Markets expect a moderate decline in the indicator from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms and from 3.7% to 3.6% in annual terms; however, given the data on the Producer Price Index, it is likely that the real dynamics will be worse than forecasts. At the same time, further growth of the American currency is hampered by openly "dovish" comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve, which significantly reduce the likelihood of a possible increase in the interest rate before the end of this year. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan put pressure on the yen's position. Bank Lending volumes in September adjusted from 3.1% to 2.9%, which turned out to be worse than neutral forecasts, the Producer Price Index fell by 0.3% after growing by a similar amount in August, while trading participants expected an increase of 0.1%, and on an annual basis the indicator slowed down from 3.2% to 2.0%, with expectations of 2.3%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing weak growth, developing the corrective impetus formed at the end of last week, when the instrument was located near the local lows of early March. Quotes are testing the level of 1880.00, updating local highs from September 27. Activity in the market remains low as traders are in no hurry to open new long positions ahead of today's publication of September consumer inflation statistics in the United States. Forecasts suggest a further slowdown in the Consumer Price Index from 3.7% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms, and Core CPI may adjust from 4.3% to 4.1%. If the forecasts come true, trading participants will strengthen their confidence that the US Federal Reserve will not raise borrowing costs this year. However, given the data on the Producer Price Index presented yesterday, there is reason to believe that the real dynamics of consumer inflation will be worse than expected, and therefore the likelihood of another increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points may again be the center of discussions. In turn, the instrument is supported by lower yields on US Treasury bonds. The day before, the rate on ten-year securities dropped by 0.15% to 4.620%, and on thirty-year securities by 0.12% to 4.820%. The downward dynamics in the bond market is facilitated by the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East, increasing the demand for safe assets.