Nathan Janzen, Assistant Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Canada points out that next week the crucial report in the US will be on Thursday with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). They see a slowdown in inflation, the headline and the core.
US inflation growth to edge lower in September
All eyes will be on U.S. inflation data in an otherwise quiet week of economic data releases. CPI growth likely looked a little better in September – we look for a slowing to a 3.5% year-over-year rate from 3.7% in August.
Fed policymakers will be more focused on ‘core’ measures that are more likely to be impacted by domestic economic conditions than global factors like energy price movements. Those measures have also slowed substantially. We look for price growth excluding food & energy products to edge down to a 4.0% year-over-year rate in September from 4.3% in August.
The Fed won’t hesitate to respond with higher interest rates to cool the economy and keep inflation in check. Although our own base-case assumes that won’t be necessary with the recent run of economic resilience not expected to last.
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