United States of America

USD today has ambiguous dynamics against EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Weekly data on the US labor market were published today, which once again confirmed its stability in the current crisis. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 207.0K, which turned out to be below the forecast (210.0K), but more than the previous indicator (205.0K). At the same time, the total number of citizens receiving benefits from the state decreased from 1.665M to 1.664M (with a forecast of growth to 1.675M). Investors have barely reacted to these statistics as they prepare for Friday's release of key federal employment data for September. It can seriously affect the further actions of the US Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy. Yesterday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) presented its employment statistics: the number of employed American citizens increased by only 89.0K, which turned out to be significantly below the forecasts (153.0K). If the same happens with federal data and employment grows by less than the estimated 170K, then the probability of no new rate hike by the regulator this year will increase significantly. If the number of employed citizens exceeds the forecast, the US Fed is likely to continue to increase the cost of borrowing, which will strengthen the position of the US dollar.

Eurozone

Today, EUR is growing against GBP and shows an ambiguous dynamics with JPY and USD.

Today, German foreign trade data for August were published, which turned out to be weak: exports decreased sharply by 1.2%, significantly exceeding the expected decline of 0.4%, imports decreased by 0.4% (instead of the predicted growth of 0.5%). The trade surplus amounted to 16.6B euros, which is less than the July figure of 17.7B euros. In addition, representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to hint at the curtailment of the monetary policy tightening cycle. Yesterday, ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said that the long-term increase in rates had probably come to an end, since their current level allows the inflation to return to the target of 2.0% in the medium term. A similar position was expressed today by the ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir who noted that the rate hike last month was probably "the last."

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against EUR and shows ambiguous dynamics with USD and JPY.

Today, September data on the Construction PMI were published in the UK, which turned out to be weak: the business activity index fell from 50.8 immediately to 45.0 points, significantly exceeding the projected decline to 49.9 points. Thus, the activity of the British construction sector has reached its lowest level since 2020. All major sectors of the UK economy continue to slow down, which increases the risks of a recession.

Japan

JPY today has ambiguous dynamics against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

The yen has stabilized after a noticeable strengthening, but may soon come under pressure again. Investors remain focused on serious market volatility: a sharp decline in the exchange rate occurred after the quotes reached the level of 150.00, which is considered the key for the Japanese government to make a decision on currency interventions to strengthen the yen, and Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki refused to comment on the situation. However, the data published later on the volume of the Japanese money market corresponded to the forecasts, which is a sign that officials really did not interfere in the situation. Experts believe that currency interventions, if they have occurred, will have only short-term consequences, since they are not supported by fundamental factors.

Australia

AUD today is moderately strengthening against the main competitors – USD, JPY, EUR, and GBP.

Investors are focused on the publication of data on Australian foreign trade for August, which turned out to be generally positive: exports increased by 4.0% after falling by 1.8% a month earlier, while imports decreased by 0.4% (after an increase of 3.4% in July). All this made it possible to bring the trade surplus to 9.640B Australian dollars. It is likely that the situation in Australia's foreign trade will continue to improve due to the recent warming of political relations with China, a leading trading partner: in particular, iron ore supplies to Asian markets are already increasing.

Oil

Oil prices continue to decline today.

The quotes were pressured by weak data from the latest report on oil and petroleum products reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): according to the document, commercial oil reserves decreased by 2.224M barrels, and distillates – by 1.269M barrels, but gasoline volumes increased significantly by 6.481M barrels. There is also the possibility of another adjustment of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve this year, in which case USD will strengthen its position against alternative assets, including commodities.