USD/JPY: INTERVENTION EFFORTS USUALLY HAVE AN INITIAL EFFECT OF A 5 BIG-FIGURE DROP – TDS
Economists at TDS analyze the implications of interventions from Japan for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY on a path towards 150
Mof officials (e.g., Suzuki, Matsuno) repeated the JPY jawboning today in a warning to speculators that imminent intervention is on the table, especially with USD/JPY on a path towards 150.
The JPY weakness is taking a hit on Kishida's popularity in the polls which probably nudged the government to unveil a new set of economic measures next week. We doubt authorities want media headlines on JPY weakness to overshadow the fiscal announcements, and lean towards them pulling the intervention trigger.
If they intervene >150, watching 146.5 as first support before a retest of the psychological 145 level again – past intervention efforts usually have an initial effect of a 5 big-figure drop in USD/JPY.
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