EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, holding near 1.0645. At the end of last week, the instrument showed a moderate decline; however, the activity of the "bears" was limited, which was the market’s reaction to the continued uncertainty regarding the future prospects for monetary policy from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve. The September meeting of the European regulator ended with an increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, which became a new absolute high. The ECB cited unprecedented inflation rates, significantly exceeding the regulator's target levels, as the reason. The US Federal Reserve, in turn, left the rate at 5.50%, which completely coincided with analysts' estimates. At the same time, the regulator again pointed to the likelihood of another adjustment before the end of this year, if the economic situation in the country requires it. Statistics from the USA and Europe failed to have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument: the eurozone Services PMI from S&P Global in September rose from 47.9 points to 48.4 points, while analysts expected 47.7 points, and the Manufacturing PMI adjusted from 43.5 points to 43.4 points, with a forecast of 44.0 points. In turn, the American Services PMI decreased from 50.5 points to 50.2 points (markets expected weak growth to 50.6 points), and the Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.9 points to 48.9 points, while analysts expected 48.0 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with a slight decline, consolidating near 1.2235 and the record lows of March. Noticeable pressure on the instrument's position last week was exerted by the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rate at 5.25%, while earlier markets expected it to be raised to 5.50%. The reason for the revision of the regulator’s initial plans was the inflation data in the UK, which was published earlier. In August, the Consumer Price Index slowed from 6.8% to 6.7%, while analysts had projected 7.0%. At the same time, as in the case of the US Federal Reserve, the British central bank does not exclude the possibility of another increase in borrowing costs before the end of this year, if the situation requires it. Macroeconomic statistics did not provide significant support to the pound: the Consumer Confidence Index from the analytical portal Gfk Group in September rose from -25.0 points to -21.0 points, with a forecast of -27.0 points. Retail Sales volumes in August added 0.4% after -1.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.5%, and the annual figure decreased by 1.4% after -3.1%, while experts assumed -1.2%. The UK Services PMI in September dropped from 49.5 points to 47.2 points with expectations of 49.2 points, and the Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 43.0 points to 44.2 points with neutral forecasts.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is correcting around 0.5950 after quite active growth last Friday. Pressure on the position of the instrument was exerted by weak macroeconomic data from New Zealand, where Export volumes in August decreased from 5.38 billion New Zealand dollars to 4.99 billion New Zealand dollars, which turned out to be worse than forecast, and Imports increased from 6.55 billion New Zealand dollars to 7.28 billion New Zealand dollars, which led to a sharp increase in the trade deficit from -1.177 billion New Zealand dollars to -2.291 billion New Zealand dollars. Meanwhile, Westpac's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 83.1 points to 80.2 points in the third quarter. Friday's statistics from the US supported the dollar's position: the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in September rose from 47.9 points to 48.9 points, which is noticeably better than expectations at 48.0 points, and the Services PMI decreased from 50.5 points to 50.2 points, while the markets were expecting 50.6 points. Last week, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve took place, at which the parameters of monetary policy were left unchanged; however, the regulator indicated the continued possibility of another adjustment to the cost of borrowing before the end of this year. In addition, forecasts for economic growth and the situation in the US labor market were improved. In 2024, the Fed expects Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to increase by 1.5%, up from the previous estimate of 1.1%, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to be 3.8%, comparing to the previous 4.1%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is growing slightly, consolidating near 148.40 and the record highs of November 2022. The position of the American currency is strengthening after the publication of macroeconomic statistics on Friday: the US Manufacturing PMI in September rose from 47.9 points to 48.9 points, better than expected at 48.0 points, and the Services PMI decreased from 50.5 points to 50.2 points, worse than expectations of 50.6 points, but remained above the psychological level of 50.0 points. The yen was put under pressure by the results of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting: the interest rate, as expected, remained at -0.1%, but investors were counting on the appearance of "hawkish" comments from officials. Contrary to forecasts, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the timing of inflation reaching the target level of 2.0% remains uncertain, and therefore the current "dovish" rhetoric will continue. Macroeconomic data from Japan on Friday reflected a correction in the National Consumer Price Index for August from 3.3% to 3.2%, and the CPI excluding Food and Energy remained at 4.3%. Jibun Bank's Manufacturing PMI corrected from 49.6 points to 48.6 points in September, while analysts had expected 49.9 points.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is declining, correcting after a slight increase on Friday. The instrument is testing the level of 1922.00 for a breakdown, awaiting the emergence of new movement drivers. Quotes are supported by macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the United States. Statistics published on Friday indicated a decrease in the eurozone Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in September from 43.5 points to 43.4 points, while the Services PMI, on the contrary, strengthened from 47.9 points to 48.4 points, which turned out to be better than the predicted 47.7 points. In France, business activity in the services sector fell sharply from 46.0 points to 43.9 points, and in the manufacturing sector from 46.0 points to 43.6 points. Statistics from the United States reflected a more even dynamics, but also showed a reduction in the Services PMI in September from 50.5 points to 50.2 points, with expectations at 50.6 points. The focus of investors today will be September statistics from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) on the level of business sentiment in Germany. In addition, during the day there will be a speech by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde. With the opening of the American session, the market's focus will switch to the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for September.