EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a slight decline, correcting ahead of today's publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States on inflation dynamics for August. Forecasts suggest an acceleration of the Consumer Price Index from 0.2% to 0.6% on a monthly basis and from 3.2% to 3.6% on an annual basis. This, in turn, could lead to another tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve this year. In addition, rising inflation increases the risk of a possible recession in the national economy, but so far other data from the United States does not directly indicate this. Meanwhile, the position of the single currency remains under pressure from statistics from the EU. The day before, market participants drew attention to a sharp decline in the Current Situation Index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Germany in September from -71.3 points to -79.4 points, which turned out to be worse than forecasts at -75.0 points, and the indicator of economic sentiment in the eurozone as a whole slowed down from -5.5 points to -8.9 points. Investors are disappointed by forecasts of a slowdown in the region's economy due to continued high inflation. At the same time, a further increase in borrowing costs by the European Central Bank (ECB) could accelerate the development of a recession. This is partly why market expectations for the regulator's meeting, which will take place on Thursday at 14:15 (GMT 2), suggest that the ECB will try to take a wait-and-see approach, leaving the interest rate at 4.25%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, consolidating near 1.2490. The day before, the instrument showed a moderate decline, which was provoked by the publication of a report on the UK labor market. Thus, the Employment Change in July decreased by 207.0 thousand after -66.0 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected -185.0 thousand. At the same time, the Claimant Count Change in August increased by 0.9 thousand after an increase of 29.0 thousand in July, and the Unemployment Rate for three months at the end of July increased from 4.2% to 4.3%. The focus of investors' attention today is on macroeconomic statistics, which failed to support the position of the pound: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell from 0.5% to -0.5% month-on-month and from 0.9% to 0.0% year-on-year, while Industrial Production fell from 1.8% to -0.7% in July, acting as a catalyst for the correction of the annual value from 0.7% to 0.4%. The published data confirms that the national economy remains under pressure, and Bank of England officials will have to take this into account when making decisions on monetary policy. In addition, today investors will evaluate macroeconomic statistics based on the dynamics of consumer inflation, which may have a significant impact on the future policy of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Forecasts suggest an acceleration of the annual Consumer Price Index from 3.2% to 3.6%, and the monthly one from 0.2% to 0.6%.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, correcting around 0.6400 after a rapid uptrend at the beginning of the week. The focus of investors today is on American statistics on inflation dynamics for August, which may affect the course of the US Federal Reserve meeting next week, at which borrowing costs are not expected to increase, while in November the regulator may adjust the interest rate by 25 basis points. Analyst forecasts suggest that the level of consumer inflation in the United States in August will accelerate from 0.2% to 0.6% on a monthly basis and from 3.2% to 3.6% on an annual basis. In addition, August data on the Producer Price Index and Retail Sales volumes will be presented tomorrow. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia are putting additional pressure on the position of the Australian currency: the Consumer Confidence Index from Westpac showed a decrease of 1.5% in September after -0.4% in the previous month. In turn, the index of Business Conditions from the National Australia Bank in August rose from 10.0 points to 13.0 points, and the Business Confidence index remained at 2.0 points. Tomorrow the August labor market report will be published, which, according to current forecasts, may provide significant support to the instrument. In particular, the Employment Change is expected to increase by 24.3 thousand after a decrease of 14.6 thousand in July, while the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain at 3.7%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows a weak growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is again testing 147.40 for a breakout and returning to the record highs of November 2022. It seems that investors are not concerned about the words of the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, that the regulator may soon revise its monetary policy after receiving enough macroeconomic data. Traders hope that this could be the first signal of the Bank's possible abandonment of the policy of negative rates, which has been in place for almost 8 years. In addition, the Bank of Japan may also intervene in the dynamics of the yen, which is gradually moving towards new support levels around 150.00. Investors associate the growth of the USD/JPY pair with today's publication of August statistics in the United States. Forecasts call for monthly inflation to rise by 0.6%, following a 0.2% rise in the previous month, while the annual rate could accelerate from 3.2% to 3.6%, and the Core Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy may slow down from 4.7% to 4.3%. Macroeconomic data from Japan presented today do not provide significant support for the national currency. However, the Commodity Producer Price Index gained 0.3% in August after rising 0.1% a month earlier, and the BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index for the third quarter rose 5.4% after -0.4% in the previous period, while analysts expected 0.2%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair remains under pressure, holding near 1910.00 and the local lows of August 25. Negative dynamics are developing in anticipation of today's publication of key American statistics on consumer inflation, which could significantly affect the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve: forecasts suggest an increase in the August indicator from 0.2% to 0.6% monthly and from 3.2% to 3.6% on an annual basis. The dynamics of the indicator, according to analysts, is mainly determined by the rise in prices for energy resources, and therefore forecasts for core inflation are very optimistic: the CPI excluding fuel and food may decrease from 4.7% to 4.3%. On Thursday, investors will pay attention to statistics on producer inflation: the index is expected to grow slightly from 0.3% to 0.4%. In addition, a decrease in Retail Sales volumes is predicted from 0.7% to 0.2%. These data influence the decisions of the US Federal Reserve, and experts currently do not expect a tightening of monetary policy, but they expect to receive additional signals in favor of a possible interest rate increase during the November meeting.