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交易中的近期偏好

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近期偏好是指一个人更重视近期的数据和经验。昨天的一笔交易比上个星期或上一年的交易重要。近两个月的赔钱经历可能比过去6个月的赚钱经历更加重要。于是,近期的一连串不成功的交易会导致交易者怀疑他们的方法和决策程序。


而实际上,交易长期盈利依靠的是稳定持续地输出优势逻辑,但优势逻辑只是一种概率,极端情况下遇到连续的亏损是再正常不过的事情。不能因近期的经验,就临时起意随意改变交易逻辑。

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