Gold breaks 1570 mark, bulls will face "horror data"

On Thursday, gold rose during the shock, ending the previous three days of decline, and returned to the US $ 1570 mark within the day and stood firm. The current transaction is around US $ 1575. Silver also rose slightly, closing up 0.82%. 

In terms of crude oil, the two oils showed a V-shaped trend and fell more than 1% during the day. The IEA monthly report continued to reduce demand expectations to suppress oil prices to a certain extent. However, during the European session, all lost ground was fully recovered, and eventually rose modestly. According to market news yesterday, Saudi and Kuwaiti “neutral zone” oil fields will restart on Sunday, with an average daily oil production of 500,000 barrels before the shutdown, accounting for 0.5% of the total global crude oil supply. 

As for the foreign exchange market, the US dollar remained strong, and its negative correlation with gold was broken. The US dollar index reached a maximum of 99.13. The euro fell endlessly, with the euro falling to a minimum of 1.0840 against the US dollar, the first time since May 2017, and the cross exchange rates of the euro against the pound and the euro against the yen also recorded new lows in several months. Sterling rose for four consecutive days and returned to the 1.30 mark after a week.

① "horror data" is coming, gold is under pressure?

The monthly retail sales rate in the United States in January will be announced soon. The expected value and the previous value are both 0.3%. The outside world is generally more optimistic about the performance of the data.

First, the job market, which is closely related to retail sales, is very strong, and personal income has continued to grow. In addition, consumer confidence has also increased month by month. The University of Michigan ’s consumer confidence index has completely recovered from the plunge in August last year and has maintained a three-year high. Investors can release February University of Michigan consumers from Validate claims in confidence data. 

In fact, in the past year, except for January 2019 (which recorded 1.4%, which is related to the government shutdown), the data on retail sales in other months were very stable. The data released in December were in line with expectations, and gold dived short-term. If the data tonight is stable or better than expected, gold may be suppressed.

Technically, FXStreet analysts pointed out that gold still has room to rise in the short term, and gold may continue to move along the path towards the February 3 high, which is $ 1592.16. In the long run, an incomplete upward sequence suggests that gold may have new upside.

In addition, investors can pay attention to the statement made by Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester. Recently, the Fed has a lot of dynamics. After hearing on the nomination of new Fed directors, Senate members expressed their dissatisfaction with Sheldon ’s position, but a White House spokesman said he expected Sheldon and Waller ’s Fed nominations to be confirmed by the Senate. The final results will be announced in the next few days.

② Sterling jumps up and down, which point should we pay attention to next?

Yesterday, the British cabinet was reorganized, and officials waved their resignation. British Treasury Secretary Javid and Foreign Minister Rab Commerce Minister Lidsom have asked to resign, while Foreign Minister Rab said they remained in office.

Affected by the news, the British pound jumped up and down in the European market, the market is most sensitive to the departure of the Minister of Finance. The British pound fell first, then recovered its losses and expanded gains. Javid resigned as Chancellor of the Exchequer less than a month before the British government announced its fiscal plan, and the market interpreted this news as British Prime Minister Johnson hopes advisors will support more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures.

Radical fiscal stimulus means that fiscal spending will increase. Analysts believe that the increase in government spending will lay the economic foundation for the UK-Europe trade negotiations and will therefore be an important support for the pound in the first half of 2020.

Yesterday, the GBP / USD finally returned to the 1.30 mark, and the GBP / EUR has risen to its highest level since mid-December. However, as the UK-EU trade talks are about to heat up, the sterling faces increasing risks. Technically, DailyFx analysts believe that the GBP / USD support range is 1.2900 / 20. Below this level, the GBP / USD may fall to 1.2823.

③ The euro is falling and falling. What is in the future?

Yesterday, the euro continued its downward trend, and the euro continued to hit a new low since May 2017. There are three main factors affecting the euro ’s fundamentals: one is the uncertainty of the European political situation, the other is the economic outlook of the euro zone, and the third is the UK-Europe trade negotiations. All three of these factors have recently released negative sentiments. 

The European Commission yesterday pointed out that the European economy is expected to continue its downturn and warned that the outbreak of the new crown virus epidemic may further impact the economic outlook. 

This afternoon, Germany ’s fourth-quarter unadjusted GDP annual rate will be released and other heavy euro zone economic data will be released. France and France Bank pointed out that the euro may face a “short-term threat”. It is expected that Germany ’s fourth quarter GDP quarter rate will decline by 0.3%, Flat. Less-than-expected figures may further weigh on the euro. 

Technically, after the EUR / USD broke below the support level in early February, the downward trend has begun. ING warned that the euro may fall to 1.07 against the US dollar in the next few weeks, continuing to hit a new low since April 2017.

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