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OPEC若延长减产协议,油价将升至60美元,反之而跌破40美元 - 花旗

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OPEC若延长减产协议,油价将升至60美元,反之而跌破40美元 - 花旗

花旗团队(Citigroup)在报告中称,因预计库存水平将急剧下降,原油市场今年二季度料加快再平衡的速度。


花旗指出,1月原油库存大幅上升,主要是因为产量在石油输出国组织(OPEC)减产协议生效前出现激增。随着减产的效果逐步显现,库存将出现大幅的下降。

OPEC与11个非OPEC产油国去年同意自2017年1月1日起减产,执行期六个月,以削减全球过剩的原油供应。然而,由于油价上涨刺激美国页岩油供应回归,一定程度上抵消了OPEC减产所做的努力,令石油库存降速缓慢。沙特能源部长法力赫此前已明确表示,如果全球库存水平未降至5年均值,将在5月份的会议上延长减产。

此外,花旗还认为,如果OPEC在今年5月份的会议上延长减产协议,那么油价下半年将涨至每桶60美元;反之,如果OPEC没有延长协议,则油价年底可能跌至每桶40美元水平。(来源:FXStreet)

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