为什么很多模仿书中策略的人依然赚不到钱?
书中的案例揭示了一个被急于求成的读者忽略的真相:
交易优势只有在时间足够长的样本中才会显影。书中那些惊人的长期表现,无一例外都嵌套着某些特定年份的颗粒无收,甚至是阶段性的大幅跑输市场。真正区分卓越与平庸的,是在那段暗无天日的回撤期里,交易者是否依然能面无表情地执行那个“看似已经失效”的既定结构。市场是波动性与周期性的叠加。短期来看,运气比策略更显眼;长期来看,行为习惯的复利效应会淹没运气的噪音。 如果你不能容忍策略在平淡期里的无聊,也就无缘见证它在爆发期里的狰狞。
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