鲍威尔留任理事，油价飙升，加息预期发酵
会议过后，美股三大指数涨跌不一，美债、黄金下跌，美元走强，加息预期再度发酵。
利率期货由隐含2026全年降息概率24%转为隐含加息概率11%，2027年4月加息概率大升至56%。
短期而言，美联储仍然只能在不确定性上升背景下继续保持观望立场，紧盯油价中枢的变化以及高油价的持续时间，油价有效回落是降息窗口重新打开的必要条件。
往后看，伊朗局势已满两月、且依旧未看到快速缓和的迹象，尤其是近日油价重新升至110美元/桶上方，指向“油价走高—通胀上行—美联储暂停降息甚至加息—滞胀可能性增大”的风险链条仍将持续演化，建议警惕高油价带来的“灰犀牛”风险。
Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of Followme. Followme does not take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided and is not liable for any actions taken based on the content, unless explicitly stated in writing.
Like this article? Show your appreciation by sending a tip to the author.
Leave Your Message Now