UK manufacturing continues to expand, but beneath the surface, divergence is forming. Headline PMI: 51.7 Output: 17-month high Confidence: ~60% expect growth over the next year However: • Employment contracting • Inventory drawdowns • Input inflation accelerating for the third straight month Persistent supply chain friction (26 months of lengthening vendor lead times) suggests structural tightness rather than cyclical noise. If cost pressures remain elevated, margin compression becomes the key risk into Q2. Expansion is intact, but sustainability depends on inflation dynamics.