OIL FALLS AFTER TRUM...from carldupoin

07 Jan 2026, 15:35 · Views 915

OIL FALLS AFTER TRUMP SAYS VENEZUELA WILL SEND SUPPLY TO US Oil prices fell on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. had reached a deal to import $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, a move that is expected to increase supplies to the world's largest oil consumer.

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carldupoin

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Carl Dupoin is a seasoned Risk Analyst and Certified CFTe professional with over 17 years of experience in the financial markets.

Do you know why Trump wants very low interest rates in the USA?? Let me explain his desperation using an ongoing situation with the US Treasury Department The news is that the US government sold $654 billion in Treasuries last week across 9 auctions with the highest yield since 2025. #1 Most of these old bills, notes & bonds were maturing this week - Around $500 billion of old T-Bills matured this week (T-Bills have short-term maturities from 4 to 26 weeks) - But the US Treasury does not have cash to repay So it issues NEW DEBT: 1. $500B of new T-Bills 2. Furthermore, $154 billion in notes and bonds were issued, including $50 billion in 10-year notes. Basically, the old debt is paid using new borrowing Why Danger - because the treasury yields are at peak levels (despite Fed rate cuts) - Maturities get shorter - Rollovers become frequent and expensive

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📉 US Labor Market Shows Further Signs of Cooling US private-sector job growth slowed again in December, with 41,000 jobs added, falling short of the 47,000 expected and failing to recover fully from November’s sharp decline. The data adds to evidence that momentum in the US labor market is gradually softening. 🎯 What This Means for the Fed & the Dollar ▪ Supports a Dovish Outlook: Weaker-than-expected job growth strengthens market expectations that easing labor conditions could give the Federal Reserve room to consider rate cuts in 2026. ▪ Muted Dollar Response: Market reaction remains limited, as the ADP report has a weak correlation with Nonfarm Payrolls, the official labor data due Friday. 📊 Key Things to Watch ▪ US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday): This remains the most important labor market release and will play a decisive role in shaping the Fed’s policy outlook. ▪ US Dollar Index (DXY): A sustained move above 98.75 is needed to signal recovery. Failure to do so, especially on weak NFP data, could open the door toward 97.75, the December low. Bottom line: The ADP report adds to the dovish narrative but is only an early signal. The real direction for the US Dollar — and rate expectations — will be decided by Friday’s NFP data.

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Top 5 Indicators Every Beginner Trader Should Know

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At World Economic Forum 2026 in Davos, Donald Trump’s Greenland push, tariff threats of up to 200%, and a proposed $1 billion “Board of Peace” are dominating day 2 of talks. 🇺🇸 US Treasuries slid, with the 30-year yield up 6 bps to ~4.91%, as Donald Trump’s Greenland tariff threats fueled inflation fears and sparked a global bond selloff. 🥇 #gold# jumped to a record ~$4,700/oz as dispute-fueled US-Europe trade-war fears and safe-haven buying.

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XAUUSD: Calm Before a 10,000-Pip Breakout Market Context Gold has spent the week in a tight Accumulation Phase, a setup that often precedes sharp moves as institutions build positions quietly. Technical Outlook Range: Confined near $2,000–$2,070 with volatility at multi-week lows. Pattern: Coiling structure suggests explosive potential. Projection: Models point to a possible 10,000-pip ($100) move. Fundamental Drivers Fed Policy & Rates Geopolitical Risks Dollar Strength/Weakness Inflation Trends Risks False breakouts Liquidity shocks from data/events Importance of disciplined position sizing Conclusion Gold’s quiet consolidation may be the calm before the storm. A decisive breakout could unfold next week, with direction hinging on macro catalysts. #gold# #GOLDTODAY#

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