My Gold Analysis ove...from carldupoin

18 Dec 2025, 20:31 · Views 479

My Gold Analysis over H1 Timeframe Chart ahead of CPI Data

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carldupoin

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Carl Dupoin is a seasoned Risk Analyst and Certified CFTe professional with over 17 years of experience in the financial markets.

FED CHAIR RACE: RIEDER INTERVIEWED President Donald Trump will interview Rick Rieder of BlackRock this week as a possible successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Kalshi markets currently assign Rieder just a 4% chance of being nominated, making him a clear long shot. Trump is expected to announce his decision in January. #Fed# #JeromePowell# #FedInterestRateDecision#

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📉 US Labor Market Shows Further Signs of Cooling US private-sector job growth slowed again in December, with 41,000 jobs added, falling short of the 47,000 expected and failing to recover fully from November’s sharp decline. The data adds to evidence that momentum in the US labor market is gradually softening. 🎯 What This Means for the Fed & the Dollar ▪ Supports a Dovish Outlook: Weaker-than-expected job growth strengthens market expectations that easing labor conditions could give the Federal Reserve room to consider rate cuts in 2026. ▪ Muted Dollar Response: Market reaction remains limited, as the ADP report has a weak correlation with Nonfarm Payrolls, the official labor data due Friday. 📊 Key Things to Watch ▪ US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday): This remains the most important labor market release and will play a decisive role in shaping the Fed’s policy outlook. ▪ US Dollar Index (DXY): A sustained move above 98.75 is needed to signal recovery. Failure to do so, especially on weak NFP data, could open the door toward 97.75, the December low. Bottom line: The ADP report adds to the dovish narrative but is only an early signal. The real direction for the US Dollar — and rate expectations — will be decided by Friday’s NFP data.

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Bitcoin ETF inflows reach $1.7 billion over three-day streak: * U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $843.6M net inflows on Wednesday * Highest single-day inflow since Oct 7 * Three-day inflow streak totals ~$1.71B, signaling strong momentum * 8 of 12 Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows * BlackRock IBIT led with $648M, followed by Fidelity FBTC $125.4M * ARKB, Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, Valkyrie, and Franklin Templeton also posted inflows * Flows indicate renewed institutional demand after year-end de-risking * Ethereum spot ETFs saw $175M inflows, third straight positive day * Solana ETFs ($23.5M) and XRP ETFs ($10.6M) also attracted capital * Sustained ETF inflows seen as a structural tailwind for crypto prices * Regulatory clarity reinforcing institutional confidence * Bitcoin trading near $96,447, ETH around $3,313

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At World Economic Forum 2026 in Davos, Donald Trump’s Greenland push, tariff threats of up to 200%, and a proposed $1 billion “Board of Peace” are dominating day 2 of talks. 🇺🇸 US Treasuries slid, with the 30-year yield up 6 bps to ~4.91%, as Donald Trump’s Greenland tariff threats fueled inflation fears and sparked a global bond selloff. 🥇 #gold# jumped to a record ~$4,700/oz as dispute-fueled US-Europe trade-war fears and safe-haven buying.

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