美联储内部就12月降息问题分歧加剧。官员们在三个关键问题上存在分歧，每个问题都将影响未来政策路径：①首先，关税驱动的涨价是否一次性？鹰派担心已消化初期关税的企业会在明年转嫁更多成本，使价格压力持续。鸽派则认为企业迄今不愿过多转嫁关税，表明需求疲弱难以支撑通胀。②其次，月均新增就业从2024年的16.8万降至8月前三个月的均值2.9万，究竟源于企业用工需求下降，还是移民减少导致劳动力供给收缩？若是前者，维持高利率可能引发衰退；若是后者，降息则可能过度刺激需求。③第三，利率是否仍具限制性？鹰派主张今年降息50基点后，利率已处于或接近中性水平，进一步降息存在风险。鸽派认为利率仍具限制性，美联储有支持劳动力市场而不会重燃通胀的操作空间
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