北京时间9月11日晚上8:30,美国劳工部将抛出 8月CPl。它不仅衡量美国民众的生活成本,更是美联储政策的核心参考。
市场普遍押注整体通胀维持在2.7%,与7 月持平,但核心CPI预计仍顽固在3.1%。加上7月就业人数断崖式下滑、关税压力抬高进口价格,风险不容小觑。市场可能出现的反应如下。
美元:通胀若高于预期,市场会认为美联储降息无望甚至加息,美元或立刻冲高; 反之,若通胀走软,9月降息几乎板上钉钉,美元下滑。
黄金:通胀高企+加息预期强化,黄金承压;若通胀回落,黄金的避险光环重燃。
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