现在的我明白了真正的“识”，是从“追求确定性”转向“拥抱概率”，期货市场是由无数变量交织而成的复杂系统，任何单一的“规律”都可能被突发变量打破。哪怕基本面、技术面、市场情绪高度共振，也只能代表“大概率趋势”，而非“绝对结果”。
因此，交易的核心不是“预判行情对错”，而是“计算概率、管理风险”：在大概率信号出现时入场，同时为小概率风险预留空间，让每一笔交易都符合“风险收益比”的理性框架。
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