The U.S. dollar inde...from Boostdemon26

25 Nov 2024, 10:27 · Views 955

The U.S. dollar index opened lower and moved lower. It is currently trading at 106.93, down about 0.5%. It gave up all the losses last Friday because President-elect Trump nominated the well-known investor Besson With Scott Bessent, a Wall Street veteran and fiscal conservative。

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Boostdemon26

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GBP/EUR is set for another strong year. However, a major risk is an economic slowdown following UK Finance Minister Reeves' budget. Sterling expected to remain strong next year Sterling should be well supported in 2025. GBP/EUR is set to gain steadily.

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Markets expect the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, moving toward a stance that neither restricts nor promotes economic activity. Barring some compelling evidence of overheating, I think the fed funds rate is justified in continuing to fall. How quickly this will happen will depend on the outlook and circumstances. But it has been very clear to me throughout this process that we are on a path that will lead to rate cuts closer to what you might call neutral. Individual forecasts for the neutral interest rate are close to the official median forecast, which was 2.9% in September. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November 6-7 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates. At the meeting, policymakers cut the central bank's benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, following a 0.5 percentage point cut in September. Several officials urged caution about future rate cuts, given the continued resilience of the U.S. economy and recent firm inflation data. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the economy was not signaling that officials needed to rush to cut interest rates. Policymakers will have more data to digest before the December meeting, including the Fed's favored inflation gauge and jobs report. It's important not to "draw any conclusions" from one month's worth of data. I think the overall picture in recent months is that inflation has often been below expectations but not far above the 2% target. ” He was referring to the Fed’s price growth target.

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technical aspect Daily level: shock; gold price has slightly broken through the 2605-2666 shock range in the past two weeks. It needs to be confirmed whether it is a real breakthrough or a false breakthrough. The MACD red column has become longer, KDJ has formed a golden cross, and the gold price is also standing at the same level. With the moving average above, short-term bull opportunities will increase significantly. If it can break through the resistance of 2700, or close above 2666.16 on November 29 (the 55-day moving average is also near this position), it will increase the bullish signal in the future. Below, pay attention to the support near the 5-day moving average of 2648.91. If the gold price falls back below this position, it will increase the possibility of the gold price maintaining a volatile trend. The 21-day moving average support is currently around 2634.77. If this support falls, it will increase the short-term bearish signal. 4-hour level: shock; the Bollinger Bands opened, MACD crossed the zero axis, but it seems that the momentum is not very strong, KDJ is close to the overbought area, the gold price broke through the upper edge of the previous shock box at 2666.16, and recorded a "cut back line". It implies that the selling pressure above is strong. Before breaking through the overnight high of 2676.31, we need to beware of the possibility of false breakthroughs and shock pullbacks. The initial support reference The support is near the high of 2657 on December 4, and the middle rail support of the Bollinger Band is currently around 2646.81. If this support is lost, it will increase the short-term bearish signal. If the price of gold breaks through the resistance of the overnight high of 2676.31, the price of gold will confirm that it breaks out of the shock range and starts a new round of upward trend. The short-term target is expected to be around the previous high of 2721; whether it can break through further remains to be seen.

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On Tuesday, spot gold prices edged down 0.2% to close at $2,640 an ounce. Strong U.S. labor market data reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is solid while driving a stronger dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of JOLTS job openings in the United States increased to 7.744 million in October, which was higher than the market consensus of 7.48 million and higher than the downwardly revised 7.372 million in September. The data prompted gold to give back some of its earlier gains on comments from Federal Reserve officials. In addition, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market's probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December has increased to 72.5% from the previous mid-60%. While a stronger U.S. dollar and interest rate outlook weighed on gold prices, geopolitical risks provided support for gold. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and political risks in France have kept the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset high. From a technical perspective, gold prices are still fluctuating near the main trend lines, showing a range-bound trend. Currently, gold may be forming a three-wave "Measured Move" pattern. If this pattern holds true, the next wave could be a downward “C wave” with a target near $2,550. If the price of gold falls below US$2,605 (low on November 26), the subsequent downward trend will be confirmed, with a target price of US$2,550 near the end of the "C wave". In addition, the MACD indicator recently fell below the red signal line and is in the negative zone, sending a bearish signal and supporting the view that gold prices will decline in the short term.

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OPEC+ production increase plan may be delayed by three months, WTI crude oil prices hit the biggest gain in two weeks WTI crude oil futures prices hit their biggest gain in more than two weeks on Tuesday. The main logic is that the United States has implemented more stringent sanctions on Iranian crude oil. More importantly, the "OPEC+" organization led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has reached an agreement. There has been positive progress on an agreement to reduce oil supply to the market. Some media reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that OPEC+ is close to reaching an agreement to postpone the oil production increase plan for another three months. It is expected to be officially announced at the meeting on Thursday. This news can be said to temporarily significantly alleviate the market's concern about the oil market. Pessimistic expectations of oversupply. At the close of commodity trading on Tuesday, WTI crude oil futures prices, the benchmark for North American crude oil pricing, rose 2.7% to close at nearly $70 a barrel, the largest one-day rise since November 18. Brent crude oil futures prices, the international crude oil pricing benchmark, rose 2.5% on Tuesday to around $73.7. During early Asian trading on Wednesday, optimism surrounding OPEC+'s postponement of production increases spread, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices rising slightly. Some OPEC+ representatives said the oil producer group was finalizing a deal to delay plans to resume oil production by another three months, according to people familiar with the matter. The organization's energy chiefs will formally finalize specific capacity plans at an online meeting on Thursday. In addition, according to the latest disclosure by the U.S. government, the U.S. Treasury Department decided to impose sanctions on 35 entities and ships because they played an important role in transporting illegal Iranian oil to foreign markets. Subsequently, crude oil prices continued to rise.

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