EUR: Eyes on ECB minutes EUR/USD moved higher yesterday, but the case for a sustainable break above 1.0800/1.0850 is not very strong, at least until US inflation data is released. We think oscillations into the 1.0700/1.0800 range remain more likely for the time being. Today’s highlight for eurozone markets is the latest European Cemtral Bank minutes from its April meeting. It is possible that there will be references to a June rate cut, or at least indications that there is growing consensus to start cutting rates soon. Market pricing for June is, however, already 24bp, so the impact will hardly be huge on FX. It will be more interesting to see whether there are indications on future plans beyond June. This appears to be at the centre of the debate and many policy comments by ECB officials. For now, markets continue to price in 72bp of easing in total by year-end. Indications minutes that the ECB is generally more upbeat on disinflation may take a toll on the euro, but EUR/USD remains primarily a function of US developments and we retain a neutral short-term bias on the pair.