今天的美国日程只包括密歇根大学的调查。市...from Seagull EA

今天的美国日程只包括密歇根大学的调查。市场将密切关注中长期通胀预期与 4 月份的 3.0/3.2% 相比是否有任何变化。美联储方面，有很多发言人值得关注。其中包括尼尔-卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari），他最近主张提高中性利率，这表明当前的货币政策并不像人们认为的那样具有限制性。其他市场方面，加拿大今天将公布 4 月份就业报告。预期就业人数将达到 20,000，失业率将从 6.1%小幅上升至 6.2%。然而，由于近几个月来加拿大劳动力市场已显示出一些疲软迹象，因此存在下行风险。如果数据疲软，加拿大央行将在 6 月份降息，这是我们目前的基本假设。

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欧元：欧洲央行 6 月后计划的不确定性依然存在昨天公布的欧元区 3 月份零售额显示出良好的回升态势，为近期经济前景改善的说法提供了佐证。今天上午，德国公布了 3 月份工业生产数据，略好于预期，但仍同比下降 3.3%。虽然目前发布的一系列经济数据不会对市场产生影响，但在政策制定者准备在 6 月份降息时，这些数据将有助于欧洲央行传递信息。来自成员们的迹象表明，这不会是一个快速、直线式的宽松周期。不变的降息预期（年底前降息 75 个基点）似乎反映了未来持续的条件和数据依赖性，短期内不太可能大幅调整。今天，我们将听到理事会成员皮埃尔-温施（Pierre Wunsch）和巴勃罗-德-科斯（Pablo de Cos）的发言，他们昨天重申了 6 月降息的前景，但未来路径更加不确定。除了今天上午瑞典央行决议的任何溢出效应外，欧元/美元本周的波动性可能会受到限制，该货币对仍应在 1.0700 附近找到合适的支撑。

Seagull EA

EUR: 1.07-1.08 looks the EUR/USD range EUR/USD had a decent jump on the slightly softer-than-expected US jobs data on Friday. Yet unless US unemployment rises 'meaningfully', it will have to be the US price rather than the activity data, which determines the next big trend for the Fed and the dollar. As such, next week's April US CPI data will probably be the next sizeable mover for global FX rates. Before then, the eurozone calendar is reasonably light, and the 2024 ECB easing cycle looks fairly priced at 75bp - our house call as well. As we have mentioned before, we think 1.08 represents a medium-term fair value for EUR/USD - which probably suggests EUR/USD can trade in a 1.07-1.08 range for most of this week. One downside risk to European currencies comes from tomorrow's Riksbank's policy meeting. Despite concerns over a softer currency, we think the Riksbank will cut. As we saw with the Swiss National Bank rate reduction in March, European rate cuts do add to the divergence theme and see European currencies underperform. This is an event risk for tomorrow.

Seagull EA

USD: Softer NFP not enough to turn the dollar trend It looks like Friday's slightly softer US jobs report has been enough to put paid to any ideas of a Fed hike this year. And Fed officials have also been keen to dampen speculation over a possible hike. And whilst the pricing of the Fed easing cycle this year has grown (45bp of cuts now expected for this year), the biggest impact of last week's FOMC/NFP double-header has been the decline in cross-market volatility. Here interest rate, equity and FX volatility are falling sharply again as the idea of divergent monetary policy trends gets scaled back. This environment may well last into next week's key release of US April CPI.

Seagull EA