在上周的事件（FOMC 和非农数据）之后...from Seagull EA

08 May 2024, 16:46 · Views 762

在上周的事件（FOMC 和非农数据）之后，市场对美联储 2024 年减息的定价稳定在 45 个基点左右，迄今为止对 FOMC 成员的会后讲话反应平平。美元--这一次--没有受到国内驱动因素的太大影响，未来几天可能会进一步趋于稳定。由于日元仍然面临压力，而且瑞典今天上午降息（更多内容见下文 “瑞典克朗 ”部分）可能会削弱对欧洲货币的需求，因此 DXY 有进一步上行的风险，但幅度不会很大。

Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of Followme. Followme does not take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided and is not liable for any actions taken based on the content, unless explicitly stated in writing.

Reply 0

Leave Your Message Now

Seagull EA

128 Posted · 92 Followers

All our systems are fully verified by 3rd party

EUR: Lingering uncertainty on post-June ECB plans Eurozone retail sales, released yesterday, showed a nice pick-up in March, endorsing the recent narrative of an improving economic outlook. This morning, Germany released March industrial production figures, which were slightly better than expected but still down 3.3% year-on-year. While the current slew of economic releases is not influencing markets, it will help shape the European Central Bank's messaging as policymakers prepare to cut rates in June. The indication from members is that this won’t be a rapid, straight-line easing cycle. The unchanged rate cut expectations (75bp by year-end) seem to mirror ongoing conditionality and data dependency moving ahead and look unlikely to be steered significantly in the near term. Today, we’ll hear from Governing Council members Pierre Wunsch and Pablo de Cos, who yesterday reiterated the prospect of a June cut but more uncertain future path. Aside from any spillover from the Riksbank decision this morning, EUR/USD volatility may be capped this week, and the pair should still find decent support around 1.0700.

Seagull EA

EUR: Eyes on ECB minutes EUR/USD moved higher yesterday, but the case for a sustainable break above 1.0800/1.0850 is not very strong, at least until US inflation data is released. We think oscillations into the 1.0700/1.0800 range remain more likely for the time being. Today’s highlight for eurozone markets is the latest European Cemtral Bank minutes from its April meeting. It is possible that there will be references to a June rate cut, or at least indications that there is growing consensus to start cutting rates soon. Market pricing for June is, however, already 24bp, so the impact will hardly be huge on FX. It will be more interesting to see whether there are indications on future plans beyond June. This appears to be at the centre of the debate and many policy comments by ECB officials. For now, markets continue to price in 72bp of easing in total by year-end. Indications minutes that the ECB is generally more upbeat on disinflation may take a toll on the euro, but EUR/USD remains primarily a function of US developments and we retain a neutral short-term bias on the pair.

Seagull EA

Snail EA, Fully verified by 3rd party.

Seagull EA

Lower volatility pumps more air into carry trade strategies. Here, the dollar does OK since it offers the highest short-term deposit rate in the G10 space. The New Zealand dollar and British pound should also out-perform in this environment, although the pound faces an event risk from Thursday's Bank of England meeting, and we'll get to that shortly. At the other end of the spectrum remains the Japanese yen. Low volatility and very low Japanese interest rates continue to see the yen as the funding currency of choice. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments that FX intervention should be 'rare and in consultation' have not helped Tokyo's efforts to stabilise the yen. It looks like this friction will be with us for some time and the market will test Tokyo's resolve by pushing USD/JPY back into the 155/156 area. A very quiet US calendar this week, USD/JPY drifting higher, and perhaps some dovish developments in Europe (we're looking for a Riksbank rate cut tomorrow) should keep DXY supported this week, which may head back to the 105.50/75 area.

Seagull EA

EUR: 1.07-1.08 looks the EUR/USD range EUR/USD had a decent jump on the slightly softer-than-expected US jobs data on Friday. Yet unless US unemployment rises 'meaningfully', it will have to be the US price rather than the activity data, which determines the next big trend for the Fed and the dollar. As such, next week's April US CPI data will probably be the next sizeable mover for global FX rates. Before then, the eurozone calendar is reasonably light, and the 2024 ECB easing cycle looks fairly priced at 75bp - our house call as well. As we have mentioned before, we think 1.08 represents a medium-term fair value for EUR/USD - which probably suggests EUR/USD can trade in a 1.07-1.08 range for most of this week. One downside risk to European currencies comes from tomorrow's Riksbank's policy meeting. Despite concerns over a softer currency, we think the Riksbank will cut. As we saw with the Swiss National Bank rate reduction in March, European rate cuts do add to the divergence theme and see European currencies underperform. This is an event risk for tomorrow.

Seagull EA