EUR: Parity slightly...from Seagull EA

EUR: Parity slightly less fashionable Some better-than-expected eurozone growth figures this week and a Fed still minded to cut rates has seen EUR/USD edge back above 1.07 this week. Calls for parity seem a little less fashionable after the European Central Bank appears to be shying away from a divergent path (after a nailed-on single 25bp cut in June) and the Fed no cut/hike scenario seems slightly less likely. We have several measures of EUR/USD medium-term fair value near 1.08, and factors calling for a significant deviation from that are weakening. One of those factors is energy prices, where the relative calm in the Middle East has allowed crude to settle back to mid March levels. We cannot see many scheduled events moving EUR/USD today, which should continue to trade well within a 1.0650 to 1.0750 range into tomorrow's US jobs report.

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美元：尽管缺乏美国数据，美元仍有支撑本周货币市场开局平静，正如昨天所讨论的那样，较低的外汇波动性正在推动套利交易的回归。最受欢迎的外汇套利交易之一--做多 MXN/日元--自周末以来回报率已达 2%，尽管日本可能会采取更多干预措施来支撑日元。毕竟，日元是本周十国集团（G10）中变动最大的货币（对美元-1%），而且似乎正在帮助美元在隔夜更广泛的水平上走强。除了跨市场波动性下降带来的资金压力，短期投机倾向显然仍在考验日本当局对日元走软的容忍度。美国方面，今天唯一的亮点是抵押贷款申请数据，在 5 月 15 日 CPI 报告公布之前，美国的数据总体上比较平静。美联储讲话日程包括苏珊-柯林斯（Susan Collins）和丽莎-库克斯（Lisa Cooks）的讲话，两人都处于鹰鸽光谱的 “中性 ”部分。昨天，更倾向于鹰派的尼尔-卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）发表了一份说明，讨论了政策的实际紧缩程度，并建议在大流行后结构性地提高中性利率。他在接受采访时还表示，不排除再次加息的可能。

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欧元：关注欧洲央行会议纪要欧元/美元昨日走高，但至少在美国通胀数据公布之前，持续突破 1.0800/1.0850 的可能性不大。我们认为目前更有可能在 1.0700/1.0800 区间震荡。今天欧元区市场的焦点是欧洲中央银行 4 月份会议的最新会议纪要。可能会提及 6 月降息，或至少有迹象表明，市场对尽快开始降息的共识正在增强。不过，6 月份的市场定价已经是 24 个基点，因此对外汇的影响不会很大。更值得关注的是，是否有迹象表明 6 月之后的未来计划。这似乎是欧洲央行官员辩论和许多政策评论的核心。目前，市场仍然认为年底前的总宽松幅度为 72 个基点。有迹象表明，欧洲央行普遍对通货紧缩持乐观态度，这可能会对欧元造成影响，但欧元/美元仍主要受美国经济发展的影响，我们对该货币对的短期倾向仍为中性。

Seagull EA

USD: Supported despite lack of US data It’s been a quiet start to the week in the currency market, and – as discussed yesterday – lower FX volatility is fuelling a return to carry trades. One of the most popular FX carry trade – long MXN/JPY – has returned 2% since the weekend, despite the risks of more intervention by Japan to support the yen. JPY is, after all, the currency that has moved the most (-1% vs USD) in the G10 this week, and appeared to be helping the dollar strengthen at a broader level overnight. Along with the pressure from its funding character amid falling cross-market volatility, the short-term speculative bias is still apparently to test Japanese authorities’ tolerance for a weaker yen. On the US side, the only highlight today is mortgage application figures in a generally quiet period data-wise ahead of the 15 May CPI report. The Fedspeak calendar includes speeches by Susan Collins and Lisa Cooks, who both stand in the “neutral” part of the hawk-dove spectrum. Yesterday, the more hawkish-leaning Neel Kashkari published a note discussing how tight policy actually is, and suggesting a structurally higher post-pandemic neutral rate. In an interview, he also said another hike cannot be ruled out.

Seagull EA