🌅 Morning Update (04.12.2025)
📉 Softer U.S. labour signals rattled markets yesterday. A weak ADP print and a drop in ISM Services employment pushed traders to price in a possible Fed rate cut at the final 2025 meeting. The shift lifted equities and sent Treasury yields – and the dollar – lower.
📊 November payrolls fell the most since early 2023, reinforcing worries that momentum is fading. ISM activity improved slightly, yet prices paid slipped to a seven-month low, hinting at easing inflation under the surface.
📌 All eyes now turn to U.S. jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, which may offer more clues on labour conditions.
📈 Despite megacap underperformance, market breadth looked stronger – more than 350 stocks in the S&P 500 closed higher, lifting the index for the seventh time in eight sessions. Futures are flat this morning.
💱 EURUSD edges down ~0.15%, while Bitcoin trades near 93K.
💻 In tech, Nvidia’s CEO doubted China would buy its H200 chips even if export controls eased, underlining continued geopolitical friction. Microsoft briefly dipped on talk of softer AI demand before bouncing as management reiterated upbeat revenue guidance.
💵 Treasuries rallied hard, knocking the 2-year yield below 3.5% and giving the dollar its weakest session since September.
🌏 Asia followed the softer U.S. tone.
🇯🇵 Japan led gains, with the Nikkei 225 and Topix jumping over 1.5% as traders priced in a higher chance of Fed easing. Strong demand for long-dated JGBs supported sentiment.
📉 South Korea and Taiwan slipped after two sessions of gains. The Dollar Index steadied after Wednesday’s drop, while U.S. yields kept drifting lower.
🕊️ Diplomacy watch: AP reports Donald Trump aides will meet a top Ukrainian negotiator in Miami today for further Russia–Ukraine talks. Trump commented that “Putin wants to end the war… it takes two to tango… we’ll see what happens.”
NORDFX Global
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