FPG：The US dollar index has risen for 11 consecutive weeks, while gold has fallen to its lowest point in nearly seven months for four consecutive weeks. 1. Falling Share of Euro Settlement: According to SWIFT, which tracks global payment currency data, the euro's share in global payments fell from 37.9% at the beginning of the year to 23.2% in August, marking a decrease of nearly 15 percentage points. Excluding settlements within the euro area, the euro's international market settlement share dropped from 33.3% at the start of the year to 12.7%, showing a decline of more than 20%. Comments: Under the strong U.S. dollar and high oil prices paradigm, the euro has faced significant pressure on economic growth within the euro area, resulting in continued weakness for the euro. 2. Reduced Probability of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike this Year: On Friday, September 29, the latest official data revealed that in August, the PCE price index increased by 0.4%, up from 0.1% in July, but below Bloomberg's consistent expectation of 0.5%. The year-on-year PCE price index reached 3.5%, aligning with expectations. Additionally, the month-on-month PCE price index recorded 0.1%, falling below both expectations and the previous value of 0.2%. Comments: The core PCE inflation in the United States for August came in lower than expected, indicating a potential slowdown in actual personal consumption expenditure. This could suggest that the market may have overestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy. As a result, the likelihood of an interest rate hike from November to December is slightly less than 50%, according to forecasts. 3. Disappointing New Home Sales in the United States for August: Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce reveals that new home sales in the United States fell short of expectations in August, reaching a five-month low. Concurrently, the S&P/CS house price index for July reached a record high after quarterly adjustments, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase. In July, house prices increased by 0.6% on a month-on-month basis, with a 1% year-on-year rise in house prices. Comments: While U.S. home sales continue to experience a downward trend, housing prices in the U.S. have continued to rise, raising concerns. However, compared to the previous real estate boom cycle, the most vulnerable low- and middle-income groups have experienced the highest salary increases, providing support to the real estate market. 4. Temporary Reprieve from U.S. Government Shutdown: U.S. President Biden has signed a 45-day short-term spending bill, providing a temporary reprieve from a government shutdown. U.S. House Republican Matt Gaetz plans to propose a motion to remove U.S. House Speaker McCarthy this week, but McCarthy has stated that he will not step down. Comment: This offers only a temporary solution to the crisis and doesn't fundamentally address the problem. The passage of a long-term budget bill before January 15 and the resolution of the debt ceiling increase remain uncertain. 5. Russia's Plans to Halt Diesel Exports: Reports suggest that Russia intends to nearly halt diesel exports next month (October) following the imposed ban. Russia’s deputy prime minister clarified that the future fuel export ban will only apply to entities other than its domestic producers. Comments: Concerns about tight supply may persist, potentially leading to further price increases, especially during the winter months. 6. UAW Expands Strikes to Ford and General Motors Factories: The United Auto Workers (UAW) union is expanding strikes to encompass Ford and General Motors factories, while Stellantis has been spared for now. Additionally, Detroit casino workers have approved a strike if deemed necessary. Comments: The increased labor costs could hinder Ford's overall strategy of transitioning to new energy vehicles, potentially making Tesla the primary beneficiary of this labor dispute. Here's a revised version with some grammar and style improvements: FPG Special Analyst King’s View: As market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high-interest rates continued to rise, the US dollar index made significant gains, diminishing gold's appeal to investors. Last week, international gold prices saw a 4.09% decline. Dawson, a Special Analyst at FPG, Observes: The euro/dollar initially rose 0.5% to 1.0617 but then retraced, ending near the flatline. The euro has recorded an 0.8% decline this week, marking the 11th consecutive week of losses. This performance is the worst since May, and by year-end, the currency pair is expected to reach 1.02, possibly even parity, if energy prices continue to surge. Dave, a Special Analyst at FPG, Provides Insights: International oil prices saw an increase last week due to the reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November-delivery light crude oil futures prices rose by 0.84%. Meanwhile, London Brent crude oil futures for November delivery increased by 2.19%. This week, "OPEC+" is set to hold a ministerial meeting, with sources indicating that it's unlikely to propose changes to the current crude oil production policy. FPG Special Analyst Yuelin’s Perspective: U.S. stocks are grappling with a challenging situation, contingent on whether it's a general account or economic growth that prompts the central bank to take action first. Persistent inflation will drive higher interest rates, negatively impacting stock valuations. However, if the potential catalyst is a growth shock, such as an economic recession, lower interest rates will also exert downward pressure on the stock market. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex