GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - WEEK 37 - 2023 [September 11 - September 15]
This week, international gold prices fell from 1,946 USD/oz to 1,915 USD/oz and closed at 1,919 USD/oz.
The reason international gold prices continue to fall sharply this week is because the USD and bond yields increased sharply in the context that the FED may continue to keep high interest rates in the remaining months of 2023.
Inflation data (CPI and PPI) for August 2023 will be the focus of a strong impact on gold prices next week. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's forecast, August CPI will increase 3.8% year-on-year, higher than 3.2% in July. On a monthly basis, August inflation was forecast to increase by 0.8%, up from July's 0.2% increase.
However, August core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to increase 4.5% year-on-year, lower than the 4.7% recorded in July. Core inflation is the data that the Fed pays more attention to.
Inflation data will certainly influence what the Fed decides to do at its next meeting. If CPI is much lower than expected, the FED may temporarily suspend interest rate increases at this September meeting. This will positively support gold prices next week. However, the fact that the FED still maintains interest rates at a high level, without rushing to reduce interest rates, will continue to positively support the USD and bond yields. Therefore, short-term gold prices will still adjust and consolidate.
Ginny Nguyễn
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