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#GBP/USD# 【GBPUSD 镑美市场分析】​ ​周四(7月6日)英镑兑美元上涨,一度升至1.2780的近半个月高点,最后收涨0.28%,报1.2739。与英国央行议息日期相关的利率掉期显示,投资者押注英国央行在下次会议将再次加息50个基点。由于英国整体通胀率(8.7%)仍远高于英国央行2%的目标。摩根大通经济学家Allan Monks表示,英国央行有可能不得不将利率推高至7%。而交易员普遍预计,英国央行利率将在明年初达到6.5%以上的峰值,这将是1998年以来的最高水平。鉴于各主要经济体央行在调整货币利率形态或形式上都或多或少处于同一位置,当前的外汇交易上,似乎不因预期经济放缓而抛售英镑,而是根据利差买入英镑。英镑/美元继续企稳于短期均线上方,有反弹走高的姿态。但日内必须小心美国非农数据若出奇强劲所引发的大幅回落风险。当前英镑/美元下方的较强支撑在1.26。而向上发展的话,前高1.2854将是前进的目标。

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