FPG :Gold bulls broke out, and crude oil is going to start a new round of rise?
Latest market news:
1. India and Bangladesh are gradually giving up the use of US dollars in bilateral trade and are exchanging in their own currencies. It is expected that Bangladesh's exports to India will be completely converted to rupees and Taka exchanges, while India's exports worth about 2 billion US dollars to Bangladesh will be traded in rupees, and the rest in US dollars. According to the data, the liquidity of the US dollar in the market is scarce.
2. The World Gold Association stated that the seasonal law of gold demand indicates that the slightation of domestic gold consumption may impact the upstream physical gold demand from April to May. Additionally, the rise in domestic gold prices and the shift of consumer budgets to tourism and other aspects may also put additional pressure on gold demand. The unspoken meaning is that gold may bear the recent trend.
3. Nine Western European and Nordic countries held the second "North Sea Summit" in the small coastal city of Belgium on the 24th. Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Norway, and Luxembourg attended the summit, and European Commission President von der Leyen and Energy Affairs Commissioner Simsson were also invited to attend. Europe is becoming increasingly united on energy issues. For European people, this means that offshore wind power in the North Sea can meet the annual electricity consumption of 120 million European households by 2030 and the annual electricity consumption of 300 million European households by 2050.
4. According to AFP, the International Peace Research Institute of Stegormo in Sweden said on the 24th that Europe's military expenditure in 2022 increased at a record rate, reaching the highest level since the Cold War after the Ukland crisis. In 2022, the total military expenditure in Europe was 480 billion US dollars, an increase of one-third in the past decade. It is expected that development will continue and accelerate in the next decade.
5. An oil tanker company involved in the transportation of Russian oil was terminated by the American Shipowner Mutual Protection and Compensation Association for violating Western price ceiling measures against Russia. The price ceiling of G7, the European Union, and Australia on Russian oil was officially implemented on December 5, and services are only allowed if the price of oil is $60 or less.
6. According to sources quoted by the media, the Group of Seven (G7) is considering an almost complete ban on exports to Russia. G7 officials will discuss this idea before the leaders' summit next month. The Kremlin said it was paying attention to reports that Western countries were considering an almost complete ban on exports to Russia and said that the new sanctions would harm the global economy. Europe and the United States are considering the 11th round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on the measures taken by Russia to avoid existing sanctions. However, such large-scale sanctions may not become a reality.
FPG Special Analysts:
Nanshi: Despite the risk of a global economic recession, there are signs of a new round of rise in crude oil prices due to low inventory and the supply shortage caused by OPEC+ production reduction. Investors should consider buying at low prices.
Dawson: The current macroeconomic and geopolitical background is favorable to gold, with inflation reaching its highest level in 40 years and the world possibly on the verge of a recession. It is recommended that investors focus on multiple orders in the gold pullback but continue to pay attention to uncertainties.
Dave: The U.S. manufacturing PMI and service business activity index exceeded expectations, and the market expects a high probability of the Fed raising interest rates in May.
Yue Lin: Bank of Japan officials are cautious about adjusting or canceling its yield control policy stimulus measures, and they are more willing to wait for progress in achieving stable inflation targets. This may continue to cause a bearish factor for the yen.
The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion.
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