FPG: Gold stabilizes in the short term, and the market needs more catalysts Latest market news: 1. [International Energy Agency: I hope OPEC will not cut production again] Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency, said that the oil price ceiling imposed on Oros has not only achieved the goal of stabilizing the oil market, but also reduced Russia’s oil revenue. From January 2022 to January 2023 Russia’s oil and gas export revenue fell by nearly 30%. Half of the increase in global oil demand this year is expected to come from China; as more refineries are put into production, the petroleum product market will stabilize in the second half of 2023; and it is hoped that OPEC will not cut production again. Comment: EIA is basically speaking from a Western perspective. 2. [The British stock market hit an all-time high] In the past year, all kinds of assets have been tragic: S&P 500 fell nearly 20%, Nasdaq fell by more than 30%, gold and crude oil prices were rotated in place, Bitcoin was halved, and national treasury bonds were washed... Even Vietnam, a previous star stock market, plummeted, and the Indian stock market did not hit a new high; house prices in various countries were under great pressure... Comments: The main factors are slowing inflation and currency depreciation. 3. [CFTC Gold Position Report] According to the report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Saturday (December 11), the net gold speculative bulls decreased by 8,675 hand contracts in the week from December 1 to December 7 to The 217185 hand contract shows that investors’ willingness to bullish gold cools down. Comments: Judging from the position data, the bullish sentiment of gold investors continues to cool down. Net long positions have decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the reduction of unopened contracts shows that the expected profit opportunities in the market will decline in the future or there may be unforeseen factors in the market, which will increase the risk of position and the cost of position opportunities. 4. [Progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine] According to a report on the website of Russian TV today, Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council, said on the 4th that the decision of the United States to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons and allow it to use these weapons at will lead to a further escalation of the situation. Medvedev warned that if the weapons provided are used to attack Crimea or deep into Russian territory, Russia may “ respond in any possible way” and the response will be rapid, tough and powerful. Comment: As Biden said in a televised speech, U.S.-Russian relations have completely broken down. 5. [NIO Automobile Starts Mobile Phone Internal Test] Shanghai Lai Automobile Co., Ltd. has applied for the registration of the “NIO PHONE” trademark. The international classification is scientific instruments. At present, the trademark status is in the application. It is reported that NIO City activities have begun to draw internal test places for the first batch of NIO mobile phones in China. Comments: Car builders should make mobile phones, and mobile phones should make cars. The other party thinks that the other party’s industry is easy to make money. To put it bluntly, it’s just a word “roll” 6. [Russia takes countermeasures against price limits in Europe and the United States] Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of Russia: Our attitude towards this (a new round of sanctions) is negative. We have discussed this issue, and sanctions are bound to lead to further imbalances in the global energy market. Of course, we will also take corresponding countermeasures to protect our own interests from being affected. Comments: At present, there is no big problem with the energy crisis in Europe this year. We still need to continue to look for other countries and stable suppliers. 7. [The United States approved the confiscation of funds from Russian oligarchs for the first time to aid Ukraine] On the 3rd local time, U.S. Attorney General Garland announced in a meeting with Ukrainian Attorney General Kostin in Washington that he had authorized the transfer of funds confiscated for use by sanctions against Russian oligarchy to Ukraine. According to the report, this is the first time in the history of the United States. Comments: Since the beginning of the war, the United States has confiscated more than 1 billion US dollars of overseas assets of Russian citizens. The negative impact is that the credibility of American banks will be reduced. Nanshi, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: As the U.S. January non-agricultural employment report released last Friday far exceeded market expectations, the strong job market gave the Federal Reserve more room to raise interest rates, causing gold bulls to run out of the market. The US dollar soared by more than 1% on Friday, and gold fell more than $5. Technically, we see that gold fell almost step by step to a strong support position in 1866. This position investor can consider short-term multi-order intervention, but must bring a good stop loss. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: In terms of the British pound, Mann, a Monetary Policy Commissioner of the Bank of England, intervened in the debate about Brexit, accusing the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union for exacerbating inflation. There are signs that the high cost of living in the United States and the European Union is beginning to turn, but the UK has not yet. Although all three countries have been affected by the Russian-Uzbek conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, Britain has also been affected by a third shock, which makes it unique: no other country will choose to unilaterally impose trade barriers on its closest trading partners. At present, the UK has encountered the worst situation in all aspects. If there is a clear turning point in inflation data, yes for the United States and the euro zone; but for the United Kingdom, inflation may still be relatively stable. In fact, changing the inflation target is not a good idea. Because the changing target of inflation may decouple expectations. The intraday trading plan can find opportunities to enter the market today, looking at the target 1.217. It should be noted that there is no strong support in the short term below. Don’t resist the single to prevent the trap. Dave, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Crude oil: Russia’s maritime crude oil flow rose for the fourth time, reaching the highest level since June last year, thanks to the previous diversion of crude oil directly to Germany and Poland. However, Europe’s ban on Russian oil imports, as well as other export price caps, have squeezed the Kremlin’s oil sales revenue. On Sunday, Europe issued a similar ban on the purchase of refined Russian oil. Limiting sales in Russia to a small number of buyers and extending the voyage of customers who transport goods have forced Moscow to offer substantial discounts. This has further reduced Moscow’s revenue, but it has also helped to ease global inflationary pressures to some extent. For the rest of the week, the market will wait for EIA’s monthly short-term energy outlook report to understand the latest forecast of oil production and demand. From the technical point of today’s trading strategy, shorts are still relatively strong, so the single idea is still mainly short. The goal can be seen around 71. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex
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